“超级厄尔尼诺”要来了？国家气候中心回应

近日，“今明两年或成历史最热年份”“地球或将迎超级厄尔尼诺现象”等话题频频登上热搜，引发广泛讨论。对此，国家气候中心专家指出，今年春季后期有可能进入厄尔尼诺状态，但目前断言将出现“超级厄尔尼诺”还为时尚早。

It is still too early to determine whether a super El Nino, a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, will develop this year, experts said.

多家媒体报道称，全球多个科研机构预测，今年晚些时候可能出现强厄尔尼诺现象，进而扰动全球气候，可能引发极端高温、洪水、干旱等灾害，还可能进一步推高全球气温，导致今明两年夏季气温攀升至历史新高。

Recent discussions on social media have suggested that this year and next could become the hottest years on record and that the Earth may be approaching a powerful El Nino event capable of triggering global climate disruptions.

国家气候中心专家解释，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）是发生在热带太平洋、具有3至7年周期的海气耦合振荡现象，属于气候系统的自然变率。通常通过监测热带中东太平洋固定区域海表温度（SST）的异常值（即偏离气候平均态的程度）的持续时间和强度来判断ENSO的相位变化。

The El Nino–Southern Oscillation, often known as ENSO, is a naturally occurring climate pattern involving fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific. Scientists classify ENSO phases by measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

如果3个月滑动平均海表温度值持续5个月高于0.5°C，则为暖位相，称为厄尔尼诺；如果持续5个月低于-0.5°C，则为冷位相，称为拉尼娜；如果在-0.5°C至0.5°C之间波动，则称为中性状态。

When the three-month average temperature anomaly exceeds 0.5 C for at least five consecutive months, the event is considered an El Nino, while a sustained anomaly below minus 0.5 C indicates La Nina conditions.

国家气候中心基于最新监测数据和国内外多家气候模式的预测结果分析，近期拉尼娜状态趋于结束，后续将进入中性状态。未来热带中东太平洋海温将持续回升，今年春季后期有可能进入厄尔尼诺状态。

Based on recent observations and model forecasts, the center said the current La Nina episode is gradually ending and will likely transition into a neutral phase in the coming months. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to continue warming, raising the possibility that El Nino conditions could form as early as late spring.

图源：国家气候中心

国家气候中心气候预测室主任刘芸芸表示，从历史统计看，拉尼娜事件结束后，当年进入厄尔尼诺状态的概率约为三分之一。国际上多个模式预测进入厄尔尼诺的具体时间存在差异，最早可能在今年4月，最晚可能在夏末秋初，不同模式预测差异较大，目前尚无法准确预测其具体形成时间和总体强度。

Historical data show that the probability of entering an El Nino phase in the same year after a La Nina ends is about one-third, said Liu Yunyun, director of the climate prediction division at the center. Despite these projections, Liu said it remains difficult to determine precisely when an El Nino might form or how strong it would become.

因此，现在断言今年会出现“超级厄尔尼诺”还为时过早。

"It is premature to conclude that a 'super El Nino' will occur this year," she said.

图源：中国气象局

国家气候中心气候预测室首席专家陈丽娟提示，厄尔尼诺事件往往伴随全球平均气温升高。但具体升温幅度和极端天气表现，还需根据厄尔尼诺的强度、类型及区域气候响应进一步监测研判。

Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Center's climate prediction division, said El Nino events often coincide with rising global average temperatures. However, the scale of warming and the intensity of extreme weather events depend on the strength and type of the El Nino event as well as regional climate responses, she said.

极端天气气候事件多发频发的背景下，天气气候相关信息浩如烟海。当前社交媒体上关于“最热年”“极端天气”等话题讨论热烈，部分信息可能存在夸大或断章取义。

The surge of climate-related discussions on social media, including claims about "the hottest year" or catastrophic weather, can sometimes involve exaggeration or information taken out of context.

陈丽娟建议公众理性看待预测信息。气候预测具有一定不确定性，尤其是厄尔尼诺的具体形成时间、强度和影响区域仍需动态监测和预测。公众应关注权威机构发布的实时更新的预测信息，而非单一时间点的极端表述。

Chen urged the public to interpret such predictions cautiously, noting that climate forecasting always involves uncertainties, particularly regarding the timing, intensity and regional impacts of an El Nino event.

她建议关注国家气候中心、中国气象局官网及官方新媒体平台等权威发布渠道，定期查阅ENSO监测公报等权威信息。世界气象组织、政府间气候变化专门委员会等国际机构也会定时发布全球气候评估报告，可作为参考。

无论厄尔尼诺是否发生，极端天气频发已成为全球气候变化的新常态，应科学应对。公众可提前关注气象预警，做好相应的防范应对准备；农业生产者应合理安排农事活动；城市管理者应加强供电、供水、交通等基础设施的韧性建设。

"Regardless of whether El Nino develops this year, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has become a new reality under global climate change," Chen said, advising the public to stay alert to weather warnings from authoritative sources and prepare accordingly.

记者：赵伊梦

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