金砖国家思考——访谈稿“伊朗危机：金砖国家能否团结一致？| 汪涛独家专访”

2026年3月3日，汪涛接受了金砖国家问题独立媒体ThinkBRICS知名学者 洛伦佐·玛丽亚·帕奇尼, Lorenzo Maria Pacini （

目前为

贝卢诺多洛米蒂大学UniDolomiti in Belluno和罗马圣多米尼克高等研究院SSML San Domenico in Rome的教授，并担任地缘政治系主任。

他创立了多极化问题高级研究所，这是世界上第一个致力于研究这一主题的学术机构。他目前担任日内瓦高等技术大学UniCampus HETG University副教授，并兼任战略与安全科学学院院长。

嘉宾：汪涛——中国分析师、前中兴通讯副总经理、作家

主题：“伊朗、金砖国家与多极压力测试”

时长：约25-30分钟

语言：英语

开场序列

主持人（洛伦佐）：

“战争可以由一方发起，但其结束需要双方共同达成协议。”

这一见解来自我们今天的嘉宾，中国分析家汪涛，出自他的著作

欢迎来到“金砖五国”板块。我是洛伦佐·玛丽亚·帕奇尼。

今天，随着中东局势再度升级，我们不禁要问：金砖国家联盟是否已准备好迎接其迄今为止最严峻的考验？

我们邀请到：汪涛——工程师，曾任中兴通讯副总经理，著有八本关于技术、地缘政治和科学经济学的书籍，并经常就中国的战略前景发表见解。

汪先生，感谢您加入Think BRICS。

第一部分：伊朗与金砖国家凝聚力测试

主持人（洛伦佐）：

汪先生，在您的著作《超越战争》中，您指出，虽然一方可以发动冲突，但结束冲突需要双方达成共识。如今，随着中东紧张局势的升级，这一原则显得尤为重要。

问题一：

“金砖国家集团中，各国在这场危机中的利益诉求大相径庭：俄罗斯和中国支持德黑兰，但2026年金砖国家主席国印度则持谨慎态度，以保护恰赫巴哈尔走廊。金砖国家如何将这一分歧时刻转化为推动真正共同外交政策的催化剂，而不是让国家利益破坏多极化项目？”

汪涛答：为了让更多观众听懂，我先用中文解答，然后再用英文。不仅是金砖国家，大量发展中国家之所以失去很多发展机遇，原因就在于不能团结一心，被美国和以色列等刻意制造和挑起矛盾。中国在中东地区作出了非常多促进大家团结一心的努力，例如劝和伊朗与沙特，促使巴勒斯坦各派联合等。中国在全球各地都是以负责任的劝和促谈的态度去做事的。其他国家有些理解，但很多国家可能并不理解中国为什么要这么做。中国这么做是有自身传统文化深刻影响的，中国是一个以“和合”为最重要文化的国家和民族。我们这么做并不仅仅是简单地出于道德，而是对长期历史发展经验教训的总结。中国并不是象其他西方殖民国家那样以掠夺作为崛起的手段，而是以发展产业，创造财富来实现国家和民族的发展。中国为什么要以和合文化作为国际政治的基础？过去可能在中国也很少人能给出清晰的解释。

我在国内给很多人解释过中国这么做非常理性和现实的原因：假设有一个100万人口的国家，通过大力发展军事，利用军事手段去掠夺一个1000万人口的国家，一旦获得成功，很可能迅速地就可以实现富裕了。但是，中国是一个14亿人口的国家，如果我们去掠夺一个1000万人口的国家，即使把对方的财富全部掠夺完，被14亿人一分，对中国人增加财富几乎没有什么影响。所以，我们希望全世界和平团结，大家一起发展产业，长期地一起创造财富，只有这样，中国才能与大家一起发展起来。我们希望所有国家都发展成功，并不是出于善良，而是只有这样，中国的产品才能有更大的市场。所以，中国说希望与全世界所有国家合作共赢不仅是非常真诚的，而且是非常理性的，是与中国自身的根本利益一致的。

美国有3.4亿人，虽然远比中国少，但也是一个规模很大的国家。他本质上也不能靠掠夺长期生存，这并不是关乎于道德，而是一个完全理性的考虑。但很遗憾，美国人没有这个智慧，他们的历史太短了。只有在吃尽苦头以后才有可能慢慢明白。现在的美国之所以陷入很疯狂的状态，就是因为继承和习惯了掠夺方式，其实他在今天的掠夺依然很成功，但他的规模太大了，已经不可能有哪个国家被美国掠夺了以后可以满足他的胃口。所以，无论他的掠夺如何成功，都依然是远远吃不饱，不可能延续下去。

印度与中国一样都是大国，现在印度的人口甚至已经超过了中国。印度有自己的历史和文化，但受到殖民、尤其是一个很小很小国家的英国殖民者太多的影响。印度有大国的雄心，却并没有理解到如何去做一个大国的最基本逻辑。大国拥有掠夺的最大资本，反而不能靠掠夺去生存，这其实是一个非常非常简单的算术题。

中国已经发展成为世界经济与科技强国，并且持有和合的文化，如果能够充分理解到这一点，应当是全世界各国发展的历史机会，尤其是金砖国家的发展机会。我个人特别重视印度，甚至认为过去十年看中美，未来百年看中印。中印发展得好，整个地球就能够发展得很好，如果中印关系处理不好，无论对中印双方还是整个世界都是很大的遗憾。

金砖国家应当团结一心，不要被那些在掠夺文化中发展起来的传统殖民国家所挑拨离间。这对全球发展中国家甚至大多数发达国家都是很重要的。

Answer: For more people understanding, i will say chinese firstly, then English.

Not only the BRICS countries, but also many developing countries have lost many development opportunities due to their inability to unite as one and the deliberate creation and provocation of conflicts by the United States, Israel, and others. China has made numerous efforts to promote unity in the Middle East, such as mediating peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia and facilitating unity among Palestinian factions. China acts responsibly in promoting peace and facilitating talks around the world. While some other countries understand this, many may not comprehend why China does so. China's actions are deeply influenced by its traditional culture, where "harmony and cooperation" are paramount to the country and its people. Our actions are not simply driven by morality, but also by a summary of long-term historical development experiences and lessons. Unlike other Western colonial countries that rose through plunder, China achieves national and ethnic development by developing industries and creating wealth. Why does China choose to use the culture of harmony and cooperation as the foundation of international politics? In the past, few people in China could give a clear explanation.

I have explained to many people in China the very rational and practical reasons behind China's actions: Suppose there is a country with a population of 1 million that, by vigorously developing its military, uses military means to plunder a country with a population of 10 million. Once successful, it is likely to quickly achieve prosperity. However, China has a population of 1.4 billion. If we were to plunder a country with a population of 10 million, even if we plundered all of its wealth, the 1.4 billion Chinese people would divide it up, making little impact on the increase of Chinese wealth. Therefore, we hope for peace and unity in the world, for everyone to develop industries together, and to create wealth together in the long run. Only in this way can China develop together with everyone else. We hope for all countries to succeed in their development, not out of kindness, but because only then will Chinese products have a larger market. So, China's desire to cooperate and achieve win-win results with all countries in the world is not only very sincere but also very rational, and it is consistent with China's own fundamental interests.

The United States has a population of 340 million, which, although far fewer than China, still makes it a large country. Essentially, it cannot survive long-term by plundering; this is not a matter of morality, but a purely rational consideration. Unfortunately, Americans lack this wisdom, as their history is too short. Only after suffering greatly can they possibly slowly understand. The reason why the United States is now in a frenzied state is because it inherited and became accustomed to the method of plundering. In fact, its plundering today is still very successful, but its scale is too large. No country can satisfy its appetite after being plundered by the United States. Therefore, no matter how successful its plundering is, it is still far from being satisfied and cannot continue.

The BRICS countries include several large nations, and India is one of them. India, like China, is a major country, and its population has even surpassed that of China. India has its own history and culture, but it has been influenced too much by colonialism, especially by the British colonialists, who are a very small country. India has the ambition of becoming a major country, but it has not understood the most basic logic of how to become one. A major country has the greatest capital for plunder, but it cannot survive by plunder. This is actually a very, very simple arithmetic problem.

China has developed into a global economic and technological powerhouse, and it embraces a culture of harmony and cooperation. If we can fully understand this, it should be a historic opportunity for the development of all countries in the world, especially for the BRICS nations. I personally attach great importance to India, and even believe that while the past decade was about China and the United States, the next century will be about China and India. If China and India develop well, the entire world will benefit. If Sino-Indian relations are not handled properly, it will be a great pity for both China and India, as well as the entire world. The BRICS countries should unite as one and not be driven apart by traditional colonial powers that have grown up in a culture of plunder. This is important for developing countries around the world, and even for most developed countries.

问：“在未来90天内，金砖国家可以启动哪些具体的机制——外交、金融或安全方面的机制——来展现团结？”

汪涛答：在针对伊朗战争的问题上，金砖国家应当统一认识到，美国和以色列这次的行为已经远远超出一切人类文明的底线了。尽管我们希望世界和平，战争却是我们不得不面对的人类活动。但即使是战争，也是必须有底线的。不经过宣战就通过战争手段去杀害一个国家的最高宗教领袖和政府首脑，这个太过于突破人类文明的最底线。而且美国和以色列正在把这种突破一切人类文明最底线的手段，变成一种通行的战争模式。这个是不能容忍的，因为如果容忍这一点，人类就没有任何法律和最基本的规则，返回到最原始最野蛮的状态了。如果其他国家也跟着这么做，整个世界就将陷入完全无序的状态。

因此，至少在这个问题上，金砖国家应当明确表态反对这种突破人类一切文明最底线的做事方式。

美国和以色列这么做，目的是要通过控制金融和石油资源来控制全世界，从而实现更大限度的掠夺。这是美国的掠夺生存方式所决定的。如果他不从根本上改变这种生存方式，就不可能改变一切服务于掠夺的做事方式。金砖国家都应当充分认识到这一点，我们只能选择通过创造财富来发展的基本战略。认识到这一点非常重要。作为金砖国家中人口数量最大的国家，印度最需要充分认识到这一点。

Answer: On the issue of war against Iran, the BRICS countries should unanimously recognize that the actions of the United States and Israel this time have far exceeded the bottom line of all human civilization. Although we hope for world peace, war is a human activity we have to face. Even in war, there must be a bottom line. Killing the supreme religious leader and head of government of a country through war means without declaring war is too much to break through the bottom line of human civilization. Moreover, the United States and Israel are turning this means of breaking through the bottom line of all human civilization into a common war mode. This cannot be tolerated, because if it is tolerated, humanity will have no laws or basic rules and will return to the most primitive and barbaric state. If other countries follow suit, the entire world will fall into a completely disorderly state.

Therefore, at least on this issue, the BRICS countries should clearly express their opposition to this way of doing things that breaks through the bottom line of all human civilizations.

The purpose of the United States and Israel in doing so is to control the whole world by controlling financial and oil resources, thereby achieving greater plunder. This is determined by the predatory way of survival of the United States. If it does not fundamentally change this way of survival, it is impossible to change all the ways of doing things that serve plunder. The BRICS countries should fully recognize this point, and we can only choose the basic strategy of developing through creating wealth. It is very important to recognize this point. As the country with the largest population among the BRICS countries, India needs to fully recognize this point most.

⚡ 第二部分：能源主权与霍尔木兹海峡因素

主持人（洛伦佐）：

伊朗的回应包括暂时封锁霍尔木兹海峡，导致油价飙升。与此同时，金砖国家正在推出金砖国家支付系统（BRICS Pay），作为SWIFT的替代方案，预计将于2026年投入使用。

问题二：

“金砖国家成员如何保护能源交易免受美国二级制裁的影响？在区域局势长期不稳定的情况下，中国究竟有多大能力和意愿来保障全球南方国家的能源走廊安全？”

汪涛答：金砖国家拥有世界上最大的经济发展潜力。未来对能源的需求非常巨大，需要在一切基础设施上脱离掠夺型国家建立的一切基础设施的影响。我们需要将一切基础设施全部都改造成创造财富型，而不是延续西方殖民者所构建的掠夺型。在这一点上，金砖国家都需要有非常清醒的认知。金砖国家支付系统（BRICS Pay）是非常重要和关键的创造财富型的基础设施。尽快脱离财富掠夺型的SWIFT系统同样非常重要。中国在推进人民币国际化，有些人可能会有疑虑，人民币会不会成为另一个美元？可以说，这是不会的。我在国内经常强调，一定要避免人民币成为另一个美元。因为中国作为一个超大国家，本质上绝不可能靠掠夺来发展。一旦走入美元式的道路，对中国的长远未来将是毁灭性的。美国已经作出的很清楚的榜样。所以，人民币国际化不会去走美元的道路同样并不是道德，而是理性和智慧。我们要建立的创造财富型的国际货币体系。

中国在能源安全上是两条腿走路的。一方面是通过构建全新的财富创造型国际金融体系，能源供应体系来保障传统能源供应，另一方面是大力发展新能源来减少对化石能源的过度依赖，这个对保护环境也有非常大的好处。

随着中国军事力量，尤其海军力量的高速发展，中国当然有力量和意愿来保障自身的能源安全通路，同时也是为全球提供安全保护。中国在海军力量上发展上非常迅速，在海军的质量上已经绝对压倒性地超越美国了，现在中国最先进的一艘055导弹驱逐舰的战斗力，可以将美国一整支航母战斗群全部歼灭，这一点可能远远超出世界上绝大多数人的想象，但美军自己是很清楚的。中国的航母技术水平上也已经压倒性地超过了美国海军。只是目前中国海军在航母的数量和其他先进战舰的数量上还需要一定的积累。相信最多5年内，中国就将具有在全球范围内绝对压倒一切对手的军事能力。全球应当清醒地看到这个趋势。这将是世界和平最重要的保障。

问题只在于：因为中国所持的和合文化，我们不会依靠自己全球绝对压倒性的军事实力去进行掠夺，也就不会去轻易动用这种实力。不象美国和以色列那样，他们是一种掠夺性的生存战略和文化，所以特别容易去动用军事实力，这可能会使人们更容易看到他们的军事能力。即使是国际政治家群体，对军事技术很清楚的人也不是很多。这很容易造成错误的判断。中国所拥有的这种保障全球安全与和平的能力更好地发挥作用，也有赖于其他国家充分认识到这一潜力。这些其实都是公开的信息可以证明的。我们并不希望通过实战去证明中国的军事实力，但如果有人迫使中国去验证，中国一定可以轻易地证明他们的这种想法特别愚蠢。

Answer: The BRICS countries possess the greatest economic development potential in the world. The future demand for energy is immense, necessitating the decoupling of all infrastructures from those established by predatory nations. We need to transform all infrastructures into wealth-creating ones, rather than perpetuating the predatory ones constructed by Western colonizers. In this regard, the BRICS countries must have a very clear understanding. The BRICS Payment System (BRICS Pay) is a very important and crucial wealth-creating infrastructure. It is equally important to quickly decouple from the wealth-predatory SWIFT system. China is promoting the internationalization of the RMB, and some people may have doubts about whether the RMB will become another dollar. It can be said that this will not happen. I often emphasize in China that we must avoid the RMB becoming another dollar. Because China, as a superpower, cannot develop by predatory means in essence. If it follows the path of the dollar, it will be devastating for China's long-term future. The United States has set a very clear example. Therefore, the RMB internationalization not following the path of the dollar is not moral, but rational and wise. We need to establish a wealth-creating international monetary system.

China adopts a dual-track approach to energy security. On the one hand, it aims to ensure traditional energy supply by establishing a brand-new wealth-creating international financial system and energy supply system. On the other hand, it is vigorously developing new energy sources to reduce excessive dependence on fossil fuels, which also greatly benefits environmental protection.

With the rapid development of China's military strength, especially its naval power, China certainly has the strength and willingness to ensure its own energy security routes, and at the same time provide security protection for the whole world. China's development in naval power has been very rapid, and its naval quality has absolutely overwhelmed that of the United States. Now, the combat capability of China's most advanced 055 guided missile destroyer can annihilate an entire US aircraft carrier battle group. This may far exceed the imagination of most people in the world, but the US military is very clear about it. China's aircraft carrier technology has also overwhelmingly surpassed that of the US Navy. However, at present, the Chinese Navy still needs to accumulate a certain number of aircraft carriers and other advanced warships. It is believed that within five years at most, China will have the military capability to absolutely overwhelm all its opponents globally. The world should be aware of this trend. This will be the most important guarantee for world peace.

The issue lies solely in this: due to China's culture of harmony and cooperation, we will not rely on our overwhelming global military strength to engage in plunder, nor will we easily employ such strength. Unlike the United States and Israel, which have a predatory survival strategy and culture, making them particularly prone to using military force, which might make their military capabilities more visible to people. Even among the international political community, there are not many individuals who are well-versed in military technology. This can easily lead to erroneous judgments. For China to fully leverage its ability to safeguard global security and peace, it also depends on other countries fully recognizing this potential. These are all facts that can be proven through open information. We do not wish to demonstrate China's military strength through actual combat, but if someone forces China to prove it, China can certainly easily demonstrate the foolishness of such thinking.

问题三（技术角度）：

“您曾参与5G基础设施建设，并撰写过关于‘主权网络’的文章。一个与西方平台隔离的、覆盖整个金砖国家的数字支付和物流层，能否成为降低能源贸易风险的关键？”

汪涛答：应该说，通信网的建设都需要遵从ITU的统一国际标准。但互联网这个基础设施是架构在5G等国际标准基础设施之上，并非完全主权平等的网络。它的技术标准主要受IETF组织管理，互联网基础设施的DNS（Domain Name System）深受美国左右。我们并不主张搞完全与西方隔离的数字支付和物流层，我们希望尽可能开放。因为对于网络来说，越是开放，其经济价值就越大。网络的价值是与接入网络的终端数量平方成正比的。但我们的确需要以创造财富为基本理念去建立一切基础设施，尤其数字支付和物流系统。这些系统首先应当是不受西方控制、独立的，然后也可以是向西方国家开放的。这些基础设施的风险是什么？就是因为掠夺型文化造成，要掠夺就是靠控制这些基础设施，人为制造风险从而才可以有效地实现掠夺。但如果是创造财富型的，其本身就不会主动去人为制造风险，因为这只会给自己的贸易带来损失。

Answer: It should be said that the construction of telecommunication networks needs to comply with the unified international standards of the ITU. However, the Internet, as an infrastructure, is built upon international standard infrastructures such as 5G, and it is not a network with completely equal sovereignty. Its technical standards are primarily managed by the IETF organization, and the DNS (Domain Name System) of the Internet infrastructure is heavily influenced by the United States. We do not advocate for digital payment and logistics layers that are completely isolated from the West; we hope to be as open as possible. Because for networks, the more open they are, the greater their economic value. The value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of terminals connected to it. However, we do need to establish all infrastructure, especially digital payment and logistics systems, with the basic philosophy of creating wealth. These systems should first be independent and not controlled by the West, and then they can also be open to Western countries. What are the risks of these infrastructures? They are caused by a predatory culture. To plunder, one relies on controlling these infrastructures and artificially creating risks, which can effectively achieve plunder. But if they are wealth-creating, they will not actively create risks themselves, because this will only bring losses to their own trade.

第三部分：中印：竞争还是合作？

主持人（洛伦佐）：

您对印度进行了深入研究——您撰写了一书，并在印度开展过业务。如今，中印两国正在谨慎地重启外交接触，但战略上的不信任依然存在。

问题四：

“除了边界争端之外，阻碍中印在金砖国家框架内深化合作的真正经济或技术障碍是什么？伊朗危机能否真正促使它们在能源安全或去美元化问题上达成一致？”

汪涛答：印度有非常特别的商业文化，就是对最低价格的极端追求。或者说，在合作中要极力地使对方的利益为零甚至为负为目标。这种极端的文化其实很多印度人自己也深受其害。我的很多印度伙伴甚至曾问我为什么印度人会这样，他们也很头疼。最初他们问我的时候我非常惊讶，他们怎么会不知道自己为什么这做呢？后来我通过很长时间的研究才明白。其实类似这种不知道自己行为原因的现象在全世界所有国家都很普遍，中国人也是如此。有些国外的研究者往往表现出比中国人自己更理解中国人的行为原因，这是一个非常有意思的人类行为学现象。印度的这种商业文化影响极为深远，其实是导致印度发展制造业极为困难的内在根源。因为印度对自己国家企业的产品也是极端要求最低价，这导致印度的生产企业很难有利润，更难去进一步研发和提升技术。

印度的这种极为特别的商业文化也深刻地影响到他们在国际关系处理上的行为。也使得很多本来有空间的合作难以达成。要想合作，必须是双方都能获得利益的。但印度在处理各种事务上是一定要把所有利益全部占有作为目标，对方的利益必须为零甚至为负。这样做事的结果就会使双方难以获得合作的共同利益空间。合作是一定要使双方都有获利空间的。

中国在这一点上就处理得非常好，所以国外投资者很喜欢在中国投资。即使美国想尽一切办法要把在中国的资本往外赶，但最终国外投资者还是大量回到中国。一个最重要的原因就是中国不仅是允许国外公司在中国赚钱，而且是把这当成政府的任务和考核指标。想尽一切办法解决国外合法的投资者在中国经营中的问题，全力帮助他们赚到钱。在很长时间内，很多跨国公司全球利润的大部分都来自中国。这是中国今天成为世界工厂的根本原因所在。如果国外公司中国没有赚到钱，很少会说是中国政府创造的经营环境使他们不能赚钱，而是自身经营或市场环境变化的问题。

这样做的理性原因和智慧是什么？只有当大量国外投资者都喜欢在中国投资的时候，中国的经济和工业才会持续地发展，并且国外企业为中国培养了大量世界一流的产业工人和管理人才。

印度有一些做得很好的地方，我经常向中国介绍。例如印度教育中高度重视管理学的培训，几乎所有学生都把MBA当作必修课。我的介绍在中国媒体上引起了很强烈的反响，也产生了很广泛的影响。现在中国学生和企业员工对管理能力的培养越来越重视，也越来越系统。每一个国家都有自己优势的地方，也有自己弱势的地方。但只有他们自己能够去弥补自己弱势的方面，其他人最多只能建议，改变不了什么。因为其他国家的人说不好的方面，首先心里肯定不愉快。但如果印度不改变自己过于极端的商业文化，未来的发展肯定会受严重的影响。全球很多企业最初都对印度庞大的市场抱有热情，但最终往往都非常失望地退出。

所以，影响中印合作的其实根本不是什么边界问题，也不是经济或技术问题，而是商业文化造成的根本行为方式。因为在印度遇到这种问题的西方国家企业无论数量还是严重程度都远远超过中国。

如果在合作中绝对不允许对方获得任何利益，全部的利益只能自己获得，那其他国家如何去与印度合作呢？这个问题也不是伊朗危机能改变的。所以，的确是印度一定要解决在合作中是否允许并保障其他国家或他国的企业能不能有利益的问题。如果这个问题不解决，其他国家就很难与印度合作。

Answer: India has a very unique business culture, which is the extreme pursuit of the lowest price. Or to put it another way, in cooperation, they strive to make the other party's interests zero or even negative. This extreme culture actually harms many Indians themselves. Many of my Indian partners even asked me why Indians behave this way, and they were also very troubled by it. When they first asked me, I was very surprised. How could they not know why they do this? Later, after a long period of research, I understood. In fact, this phenomenon of not knowing the reasons for one's own behavior is common in all countries around the world, including China. Some foreign researchers often show a better understanding of the reasons for Chinese behavior than the Chinese themselves, which is a very interesting phenomenon in human behavior studies. This business culture in India has a profound impact and is actually the inherent root cause that makes it extremely difficult for India to develop its manufacturing industry. Because India also demands the lowest price for its own products, it is difficult for Indian manufacturing enterprises to make a profit, let alone further research and technological improvement.

This extremely unique business culture in India has also profoundly influenced their behavior in handling international relations. It has also made it difficult to achieve many cooperation opportunities that were originally available. For cooperation to be possible, both parties must be able to gain benefits. However, when dealing with various matters, India always aims to possess all the benefits, with the other party's interests being zero or even negative. The result of such an approach is that it becomes difficult for both parties to find a common interest space for cooperation. Cooperation must provide a profitable space for both parties.

China has handled this aspect exceptionally well, which is why foreign investors are so fond of investing in China. Even when the United States tried every means to repatriate capital from China, foreign investors ultimately returned in large numbers. One of the most important reasons is that China not only allows foreign companies to make money in China, but also regards it as a government task and assessment indicator. Every effort is made to solve the problems encountered by legitimate foreign investors in their operations in China, and to fully assist them in making money. For a long time, many multinational companies have derived a majority of their global profits from China. This is the fundamental reason why China has become the world's factory today. If foreign companies fail to make money in China, they rarely blame the Chinese government for creating an operating environment that prevents them from making money, but rather point to issues related to their own operations or changes in the market environment.

What are the rational reasons and wisdom behind this approach? Only when a large number of foreign investors prefer to invest in China, can China's economy and industry continue to develop, and foreign enterprises cultivate a large number of world-class industrial workers and management talents for China.India has some areas where it excels, and I often introduce these to China. For instance, Indian education places great emphasis on management training, with almost all students considering MBA as a compulsory course. My introduction has sparked strong reactions in the Chinese media and has had a widespread impact. Nowadays, Chinese students and employees are paying increasing attention to the cultivation of management skills, and they are becoming more systematic in doing so. Every country has its strengths and weaknesses. However, only they themselves can address their weaknesses; others can only offer suggestions at best, but cannot change anything. Because when people from other countries point out the shortcomings, they will inevitably feel unhappy. But if India does not change its overly extreme business culture, its future development will definitely be severely affected. Many global enterprises initially harbored enthusiasm for India's vast market, but they often withdraw disappointedly in the end.

Therefore, what truly affects Sino-Indian cooperation is not the border issue, nor economic or technological issues, but fundamental behavioral patterns shaped by business culture. This is because Western companies encounter such issues far more frequently and severely than Chinese companies in India. If cooperation is conducted in such a way that absolutely no benefits are allowed to be gained by the other party, with all benefits exclusively going to oneself, how can other countries cooperate with India? This issue cannot be altered by the Iran crisis. Therefore, it is indeed imperative for India to address the question of whether to allow and ensure that other countries or their enterprises can benefit from cooperation. If this issue remains unresolved, it will be difficult for other countries to cooperate with India.

第四部分：金砖国家政策的科学方法？（24:00-29:00）

主持人(Lorenzo Maria Pacini)：

您在《科学经济学原理》一书中主张，政策制定应基于测量、实验和跨学科分析，而非意识形态。

问题6：

“如果金砖国家想要真正提供一套替代华盛顿共识的方案，那么‘科学的’发展模式应该是什么样的？除了GDP之外，还有哪些指标应该指导我们集团的优先事项？我们又该如何衡量成功？”

汪涛答：中国的领导者在近百年的发展过程中是逐步形成了一整套非常科学的理论体系的，只是因为西方国家推崇的“华盛顿共识”淹没了人们理解和认识这套科学理论体系。当然，在另一方面，这套科学的理论体系本身的阐释还不是很完善，也影响了人们的理解。中国的这套理论体系并不是人们所说的“北京共识”可以慨括的，而是延续了近代科学革命和工业革命的一整套科学方法。这一点可能是其他国家的政治家们还没有充分意思到的。中国的领导人毛泽东、邓小平、习近平等，他们并不仅仅是政治家，而且是科学家和工程师。他们是完全遵循近代科学和工业革命的全套方法体系来建设国家的。而这套方法体系本来最初在建立过程中，欧洲人是做了很大贡献的，但很难理解的是他们自己居然把这套科学方法全忘掉了，把国家的治理和建设问题最终推向了意思形态化，和反科学的道路。

毛泽东不仅仅是一位政治家与军事家，他是一位社会测量学、社会实验学领域的先驱。他倡导的方法完全是现代科学的方法。中国政府一再地发布文件强调要“大兴调查研究之风”。调查研究，本质上就是社会测量与实验。包括其他的指引中国进步的理论体系全都是与牛顿、伽利略、拉瓦锡、爱因斯坦、普朗克、瓦特、爱迪生、特拉斯等科学家、发明家和工程师完全一样的方法。但欧洲人和美国人自己的政治却不断地退回到中世纪、甚至更古老的反科学愚昧状态。这其实才是他们在今天不断衰落的根本原因。

举一个简单例子：如何去测量一座大桥的建设是否成功呢？如果要按科学的方法去评价，其实非常简单，就是看它是否达到了承重，通车能力，抗震，抗老化等等技术指标，还有建设工期，建设成本等。如果依循科学的方法，这些技术和经济指标的确定和测量其实一点都不困难。

但是，如果人们硬要在其中加上建设工人甚至管理者里面有多少LGBT，即使建设工期拖延了十倍，成本比预算增加了十倍，甚至最后桥塌了也没关系。那样怎么可能有好的结果？

中国为什么在过去近百年的时间一直持续地克服新的困难，不断获得建设的成功？是因为我们一直坚持现代科学的方法，排除一切反科学的意思形态干扰。

Answer: Over the course of nearly a century of development, China's leaders have gradually formed a highly scientific theoretical system. However, the "Washington Consensus" advocated by Western countries has overshadowed people's understanding and recognition of this scientific theoretical system. On the other hand, the explanation of this scientific theoretical system itself is not yet very comprehensive, which also affects people's understanding. China's theoretical system cannot be summarized by the so-called "Beijing Consensus", but rather continues the entire set of scientific methods from the modern scientific revolution and industrial revolution. This point may not have been fully realized by politicians in other countries. They built their country by fully adhering to the comprehensive methodological system of modern science and the Industrial Revolution. Initially, Europeans made significant contributions to the establishment of this methodological system, but it is difficult to understand how they themselves completely forgot this scientific approach and ultimately pushed the governance and construction of the country towards ideological and anti-scientific paths.

Mao Zedong was not only a politician and military strategist, but also a pioneer in the fields of social measurement and social experimentation. The methods he advocated were entirely modern scientific methods. The Chinese government has repeatedly issued documents emphasizing the need to "vigorously promote the style of investigation and research." Investigation and research, in essence, are social measurement and experimentation. The theoretical systems guiding China's progress, including others, all employ methods identical to those of scientists, inventors, and engineers such as Newton, Galileo, Lavoisier, Einstein, Planck, Watt, Edison, and Tesla. However, the politics of Europeans and Americans themselves have continuously regressed to the medieval or even more ancient anti-science ignorance. This is actually the fundamental reason for their continuous decline today.

Let's take a simple example: how to measure the success of a bridge construction? If we evaluate it with scientific methods, it's actually quite simple. We just need to see if it meets technical indicators such as load-bearing capacity, traffic capacity, earthquake resistance, anti-aging, as well as construction duration and cost. If we follow scientific methods, determining and measuring these technical and economic indicators is not difficult at all.

However, if people insist on including the number of LGBT individuals among the construction workers or even managers, it doesn't matter even if the construction period is delayed tenfold, the cost increases tenfold compared to the budget, or even if the bridge collapses in the end. How can there possibly be a good outcome like that?

Why has China been able to continuously overcome new difficulties and achieve success in construction over the past century? It is because we have always adhered to modern scientific methods and eliminated all anti-scientific ideological interference.

结束语：

“展望未来六个月：我们应该关注哪些具体的信号，才能判断金砖国家是在构建一个具有韧性的多极架构，还是仅仅在应对危机？”

汪涛答：未来6个月国际形势可能会发生巨大的变化。无论伊朗局势往哪个方向发展都会是如此。如果美国和以色列深陷战争的泥潭，很可能会带来连锁反应，使美国的霸权危机总爆发。这会引起全球局势的巨大动荡，也会带来全新的发展机遇。尤其是金砖国家的发展机遇。金砖国家需要迅速团结一心，对此作出提前应对。因为美国霸权危机如果爆发，可能意味着美国霸权的结束，未来的世界需要金砖国家承担主要的领导责任。金砖国家将会取代以往七国集团的地位，成为世界经济、政治、科技和军事的核心。我们需要尽快为这一天的到来提前作好准备。

Answer: The international situation may undergo tremendous changes in the next six months. This will be the case regardless of which direction the situation in Iran develops. If the United States and Israel are deeply embroiled in a war, it is likely to trigger a chain reaction, leading to the total outbreak of the hegemonic crisis in the United States. This will cause great turbulence in the global situation and bring new development opportunities. Especially for the BRICS countries. The BRICS countries need to quickly unite and respond in advance. Because if the hegemonic crisis of the United States breaks out, it may mean the end of American hegemony, and the future world will need the BRICS countries to assume the main leadership responsibility. The BRICS countries will replace the previous G7 status and become the core of the world's economy, politics, technology, and military. We need to prepare for the arrival of this day as soon as possible.

主持人（洛伦佐）：

汪涛先生，感谢您分享这些真知灼见。您的观点提醒我们，多极化不仅仅是增加新的极点，更重要的是构建能够承受压力的体系。

各位观众：你们怎么看？金砖国家能否化危机为凝聚力？请在下方留言分享您的想法，并订阅我们的节目，获取更多关于新兴世界秩序的深度分析。

THINK BRICS – Interview Script "Iran Crisis: Can BRICS Hold Together? | Wang Tao Exclusive"

Guest: Wang Tao (汪涛) – Chinese Analyst, Former ZTE VP, Author

Topic: "Iran, BRICS and the Multipolar Stress Test"

Duration: ~25-30 min

Language: English

️ OPENING SEQUENCE (0:00-1:30)

HOST (Lorenzo):

"The war begins when the US and Israel decide — but how it ends depends on Iran."

These are the words of our guest today, Chinese analyst Wang Tao, written just days ago as the Middle East faced a new escalation.

Welcome to Think BRICS. I'm Lorenzo Maria Pacini.

Today, we ask: Is the BRICS alliance ready for its hardest test yet?

With us: Wang Tao — engineer, former VP of ZTE, author of seven books on technology, geopolitics, and scientific economics, and a regular voice on China's strategic outlook.

Mr. Wang, thank you for joining Think BRICS.

[GUEST ACKNOWLEDGMENT]

SEGMENT 1: IRAN & THE BRICS COHESION TEST (1:30-10:00)

HOST:

Let's start with your recent analysis on Guancha. You wrote that Iran's strategy must be a "prolonged war of resistance" — not to win militarily, but to mobilize global support.

Q1:

"The BRICS bloc includes countries with very different stakes in this crisis: Russia and China backing Tehran, but India — the 2026 BRICS chair — staying cautious to protect the Chabahar corridor. How can BRICS turn this moment of division into a catalyst for a truly common foreign policy, rather than letting national interests fragment the multipolar project?"

[FOLLOW-UP if needed]:

"What concrete mechanisms — diplomatic, financial, or security-related — could BRICS activate in the next 90 days to show unity?"

⚡ SEGMENT 2: ENERGY SOVEREIGNTY & THE HORMUZ FACTOR (10:00-18:00)

HOST:

Iran's response included a temporary blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices soaring. At the same time, BRICS is rolling out BRICS Pay in 2026 as an alternative to SWIFT.

Q2:

"How can BRICS members protect energy transactions from secondary US sanctions? And what is China's real capacity — and willingness — to guarantee secure energy corridors for the Global South in a scenario of prolonged regional instability?"

Q3 (Tech angle):

"You've worked on 5G infrastructure and written about 'sovereign networks'. Could a BRICS-wide digital payments and logistics layer — insulated from Western platforms — be the key to de-risking energy trade?"

SEGMENT 3: CHINA-INDIA: COMPETITION OR COOPERATION? (18:00-24:00)

HOST:

You've studied India deeply — you wrote Incredible India and led business operations there. Today, China and India are cautiously re-engaging diplomatically, yet strategic mistrust remains.

Q4:

"Beyond the border disputes, what are the real economic or technological barriers preventing deeper China-India cooperation within BRICS? And can the Iran crisis actually become a forcing function for them to align on energy security or de-dollarization?"

SEGMENT 4: A SCIENTIFIC METHOD FOR BRICS POLICY? (24:00-29:00)

HOST:

In your book Principles of Scientific Economics, you argue for policy-making based on measurement, experimentation, and interdisciplinary analysis — not ideology.

Q6:

"If BRICS wants to offer a genuine alternative to the Washington Consensus, what would a 'scientific' approach to development look like? Which indicators beyond GDP should guide our bloc's priorities — and how do we measure success?"

CLOSING QUESTION:

"Looking ahead 6 months: what are the 2-3 concrete signals we should watch to know whether BRICS is building a resilient multipolar architecture — or just reacting to crises?"

CLOSING (29:00-30:00)

HOST:

Mr. Wang Tao, thank you for these insights. Your perspective reminds us that multipolarity isn't just about adding new poles — it's about building systems that can withstand pressure.

To our viewers: What do you think? Can BRICS turn crisis into cohesion? Drop your thoughts below, and subscribe for more deep dives into the emerging world order.