激活空间、调整结构、防范风险：优化政府债务管理的三重路径（附英文版）

来源：市场资讯

　　◇ 作者：钟言

　　◇ 本文原载《债券》2026年1月刊

　　政府债务管理是宏观调控的关键工具，其管理效能直接关系财政可持续性与经济稳定。我国经济正处于转型升级和全面深化改革的关键期，结合中央经济工作会议精神和“十五五”规划建议，政府债务管理需在稳增长与防风险之间取得平衡，聚焦债务空间利用、央地债务结构优化与风险防控机制建设，提升财政治理水平。

　　高效利用政府债务空间，强化财政逆周期调节功能。我国政府负债率在世界主要经济体中处于较低水平，具备一定债务空间。适度的财政赤字和合理规模的债务，有助于在需求不足和经济结构调整关键期增强调节能力。2025年中央经济工作会议提出，保持必要的财政赤字和债务总规模；“十五五”规划建议强调，要增强财政可持续性。发挥政府债务空间优势，一方面要适度扩大国债发行规模，重点支持经济社会发展的长期性和基础性领域。另一方面，要强化财政科学管理，深化零基预算改革，加强预算绩效评价，确保债务资金投向精准、使用高效，避免资源错配与浪费。

　　优化央地债务结构，推动事权与支出责任相匹配。当前地方政府债务负担较重，部分区域财政运行承压，主要原因在于地方政府承担过多支出责任却缺乏稳定的财源。为此，需构建权责清晰、财力协调的政府债务结构。一是要贯彻落实“十五五”规划建议中“适当加强中央事权、提高中央财政支出比重”的要求，通过制度化方式明确各级政府在基本公共服务中的职责边界。二是优化政府债务结构，扩大中央政府债务比重，发挥中央政府低成本融资优势，缓解地方债务压力。三是规范地方政府融资机制，完善专项债项目收益和风险评估机制，强化支出必问效、无效必问责的硬约束。

　　健全风险防控机制，守住不发生系统性风险的底线。地方债务风险防控已进入主动化解、系统应对的新阶段。“十五五”规划建议提出，要统筹推进房地产、地方政府债务、中小金融机构等风险有序化解，凸显风险联防联控的重要性。对于地方政府债务风险，一是要建立覆盖全口径债务的动态监测体系，对债务率、偿债能力等指标实施分级预警。二是严格控制增量风险，有序化解存量风险。压实举债主体责任，将债务管理纳入财政绩效考核，坚决遏制变相举债和违规担保。推动融资平台向市场化转型，剥离政府融资职能，实现独立运营。优化债务重组与置换机制，多措并举化解存量风险。三是加强财政与金融监管协同，构建权责清晰、约束有力的债务治理机制，防范风险跨市场传导。

　　“十五五”期间，为保障积极的财政政策高效实施，需要政府债务管理在空间利用上精准施策，在结构优化上深化改革，在风险防控上压实责任，推动实现财政可持续与经济高质量发展的有机统一。

　　Activating Buffer， Adjusting Structure and Preventing Risks： Policy Trident to Optimize Government Debt Management

　　Zhong Yan

　　Government debt management is a key tool for macroeconomic regulation， and its effectiveness directly impacts fiscal sustainability and economic stability． China’s economy is undergoing a critical stage of transformation， upgrading and comprehensive reforms． Aligning with the Central Economic Work Conference and the Recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan， government debt management needs to strike a balance between stabilizing growth and preventing risks． It is suggested to enhance fiscal governance by focusing on utilizing debt space， optimizing the debt structure between central and local governments， and strengthening risk prevention and control mechanisms．

　　It is suggested to utilize government debt space and strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment function of fiscal policy． China maintains a relatively low government debt-to-GDP ratio among major economies， which provides space for debt． Moderate fiscal deficits and a proper scale of debt can enhance regulatory capacity during periods of insufficient demand and critical economic restructuring． The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and an appropriate overall debt scale； while the Recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan highlighted the need to enhance fiscal sustainability． To harness the space for government debt， on one hand， the issuance scale of government bonds can be properly expanded， with a focus on supporting long-term and foundational areas of economic and social development． On the other hand， fiscal management needs to be improved by deepening zero-based budgeting reforms， enhancing budget performance evaluation， and ensuring precise and efficient use of the debt funds to avoid mismatch or waste of resources．

　　It is proposed to optimize the debt structure between central and local governments， and align administrative authority with expenditure responsibilities． Currently， local governments face debt burdens， with some regions under fiscal pressure， largely due to their excessive expenditure responsibilities without stable revenue sources． Therefore， it is necessary to establish a clearly-defined and financially-coordinated government debt structure． First， it is necessary to implement the Recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan to let the central government “hold more fiscal powers as appropriate and accordingly raise the proportion of its expenditure” by clarifying the responsibilities of governments at different levels in basic public services through institutionalized approaches． Second， the government debt structure needs to be optimized by raising the proportion of central government debt， leveraging the central government’s low-cost financing to alleviate local debt pressure． Third， local government financing mechanisms need to be regulated by improving the risk assessment and revenue evaluation mechanisms for special bond projects， and enforcing accountability for inefficiencies in expenditure．

　　It is necessary to improve risk control and prevent systemic risks． The prevention and control of local debt risks have entered a new stage of proactive resolution and systematic response． The Recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan propose concerted efforts to resolve risks in real estate， local government debt， and small and medium-sized financial institutions， underscoring the importance of coordinated risk control． For local government debt risks， first， a dynamic monitoring system covering all debt needs to be established， with graded warnings for indicators such as debt ratios and solvency． Second， incremental risks need to be strictly controlled while existing risks can be resolved in a well-managed manner． This involves holding borrowers accountable， incorporating debt management into fiscal performance assessments， and curbing disguised borrowing and illegal guarantees． Financing platforms can transition toward market-oriented operations， be separated from government financing functions， and pursue independent operations． Debt restructuring and replacement mechanisms can be optimized to resolve existing risks． Third， fiscal and financial regulatory coordination needs to be strengthened to establish a clear and effective debt governance mechanism， preventing cross-market transmission of risks．

　　During the 15th Five-Year Plan period， to ensure efficient implementation of proactive fiscal policies， government debt management is suggested to adopt precise measures in utilizing debt space， deepen reforms in structural optimization， and strengthen accountability in risk control． This will promote the organic integration of fiscal sustainability and high-quality economic development．