俄罗斯港口的油轮爆炸，可能没那么简单|黄海|东海|海域|波罗的海

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据海事安全公司安布雷分析（Ambrey Analytics）称，周日在俄罗斯港口发生爆炸的一艘苏伊士型油轮可能是被蓄意攻击。（相关阅读：）

这艘载重164,500吨的“KOALA”号（建于2003年）油轮在波罗的海的乌斯季-卢加港机舱发生事故，船上搭载13000吨燃料油，爆炸迫使船员撤离船只。船尾部分发生的三次爆炸导致船体出现一个100厘米×80厘米的洞，以及两道4米×2米的更大裂缝。Ambrey表示：“如果得到证实，这将表明爆炸是由附着式水雷引起的。”

列宁格勒州州长亚历山大・德罗兹坚科称，爆炸发生在主机启动期间。昨天，德罗兹坚科在其Telegram频道上否定了蓄意破坏的说法，只是表示已完成抽取燃油和恢复受损油轮浮力的准备工作。他说：“所需的泵已运抵港口……工作定于下午进行。”

任何有关蓄意破坏的迹象都不可避免地会将矛头指向乌克兰特工，一些俄罗斯机构已经朝着这个方向进行推测。2月11日，俄罗斯对外情报局（SRV）发布公告称，已收到情报，乌克兰相关部门计划使用俄制水雷在波罗的海炸毁一艘“外国船只”。SRV在其网站声明中表示，这起事件随后将被用作“以确保海上航行安全为借口”关闭俄罗斯进入波罗的海通道的理由。该声明并未具体提及“KOALA”号，目前该船似乎没有危险。

俄罗斯联邦海运和内河运输局（Rosmorrechflot）在周日爆炸发生后不久表示，该船的货舱未受损，没有造成泄漏，也没有船员受伤。当局发布的照片显示船只状况稳定，据报道，船只周围已设置了围油栏。

“KOALA”号由拉各斯海运公司管理，该公司在塞浦路斯注册，但显然总部位于阿联酋。在过去几年里，这艘船多次更改船名和船旗，它最后一次以OrbitI的名字进行交易，并在三个月前将船旗从巴拿马改为安提瓜和巴布达。当时这艘油轮并未受到制裁，也不在乌克兰军事情报名单上。

Ambrey表示：“这起事件以及其他未报道的事件，可能会引发对停靠俄罗斯波罗的海港口船只战争风险溢价率的重新评估。因此建议航运公司对所有租船协议和采购进行资产筛查评估，并开展动态航次风险评估。”

信德海事安全综合报道

如下为最新海况天气：

海洋天气公报

预报：渠鸿宇签发：王海平 2025 年 02 月 12 日 18 时

我国近海将有6~8级风

一、近海海域天气实况

2月12日02时至14时，渤海海峡、黄海大部海域、南海中西部海域出现了5~7级、阵风8级的偏北风或西北风，东海北部海域出现了6~7级、阵风8级的偏西风，东海南部海域、南海西南部海域出现了5~6级、阵风7级的旋转风，巴士海峡、南海东北部海域出现了5~6级、阵风7级的偏东风。琼州海峡出现了能见度不足1公里的大雾。

二、未来三天具体预报

12日20时至13日20时，台湾海峡将有7～8级、阵风9级的东北风，巴士海峡将有5～6级、阵风7级增大到7～8级、阵风9级的东南风转东北风，黄海中部海域将有6～7级、阵风8级减弱到4～5级的西北风到偏西风，黄海南部海域将有6～7级、阵风8级减弱到4级以下的偏北转偏西风，东海北部海域将有5～7级、阵风8级的西北风到偏北风，东海南部海域、台湾以东洋面、南海北部海域将有5～7级、阵风8级的偏北到东北风，渤海海峡将有5～6级、阵风7级的西南风到偏西风，黄海北部海域将有5～6级、阵风7级的西北风到偏西风，北部湾、南海中西部海域将有5～6级、阵风7级的东北风。12日夜间，北部湾、琼州海峡将有轻雾，能见度不足10公里，其中北部湾北部沿岸海域、琼州海峡部分海域将有间歇性能见度不足1公里的大雾。

13日20时至14日20时，台湾海峡、巴士海峡、南海东北部海域将有5～7级、阵风8级的东北风，台湾以东洋面、南海中西部海域将有4～6级、阵风7级的偏北到东北风，东海南部海域、南海西北部海域将有4～6级、阵风7级的偏东到东北风。

14日20时至15日20时，东海北部海域将有4级以下增大到5～6级、阵风7级的东南风到偏南风，东海南部海域将有4～6级、阵风7级的东南风到偏南风，巴士海峡将有4～6级、阵风7级的东北风转东南风，南海东北部海域将有4～6级、阵风7级的东北风。

三、未来4～7天天气展望

15日20时至19日20时，渤海，渤海海峡，黄海大部海域，东海大部海域，台湾海峡，台湾以东洋面，巴士海峡，北部湾，琼州海峡，南海东部和西部海域将有7~8级、阵风9级的风。

海事天气公报

ZCZC

WWCI50 BABJ 120600

2:1:31:11:01:00

SECURITE =

MESSAGE FOR METAREA XI (CHINA) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING

AT 1015UTC FEB.12 2025 =

MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS =

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600UTC FEB.12 =

FCST VALID 0600UTC FEB.13 =

WARNNING=

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SUMMARY=

NW/NLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP

TO 2.0M OVER BOHAI STRAIT AND YELLOW SEA AND WEST

CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA=

SW/WLY WINDS FROM 12 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP

TO 2.5M OVER NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND

NORTHEASTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA=

CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S GUSTS 14M/S SEAS

UP TO 1.5M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA=

ELY WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S GUSTS 14M/S SEAS UP TO

1.5M OVER BASHI CHANNEL=

SLY WINDS FROM 12 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO

2.5M OVER SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN=

HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER SOUTHERN

PART OF YELLOW SEA AND WESTERN PART OF EAST CHINA

SEA AND TAIWAN STRAIT AND NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH

CHINA SEA AND QIONGZHOU STRAIT AND BEIBU GULF AND

WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA AND SOUTHWESTERN PART

OF JAPAN SEA AND ANDAMAN SEA AND THAILAND GULF AND

MALACCA STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SEA

SOUTH OF SUMATERA AND SUNDA STRAIT AND MAKASSAR

STRAIT AND LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT BANDA=

FCST=

BOHAI SEA

W WINDS 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE MODERATE SUNNY

VIS GOOD=

BOHAI STRAIT

NW WINDS BACK W 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA

STATE MODERATE SUNNY VIS GOOD=

NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA

NW WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S BACK W

WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S SEA STATE

MODERATE SUNNY VIS GOOD=

CENTRAL PART OF YELLOW SEA

NW WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S BACK SW

WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S SEA STATE

ROUGH TO MODERATE OVERCAST VIS GOOD=

SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA

NW WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S VEER N

WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S SEA STATE

ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=

NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

NW WINDS VEER N 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S SEA

STATE ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=

SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA

NE WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S SEA STATE

ROUGH MODERATE RAIN VIS MODERATE=

TAIWAN STRAIT

NE WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S INCR 16 TO

20M/S GUSTS 20 TO 24M/S SEA STATE MODERATE TO

ROUGH HEAVY RAIN VIS MODERATE=

SEA EAST OF TAIWAN

NE WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S INCR 16 TO

20M/S GUSTS 20 TO 24M/S SEA STATE MODERATE TO

ROUGH MODERATE RAIN VIS MODERATE=

BASHI CHANNEL

E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S BACK NE

WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE

MODERATE TO ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=

BEIBU GULF

NE WINDS 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO

12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE SLIGHT TO

MODERATE FOG BECMG OVERCAST VIS MODERATE TO GOOD=

NORTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

NE WINDS 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 12 TO

16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S SEA STATE MODERATE TO

ROUGH FOG BECMG MODERATE RAIN VIS MODERATE=

NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S INCR 12 TO

16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S SEA STATE MODERATE TO

ROUGH OVERCAST BECMG MODERATE RAIN VIS GOOD TO

MODERATE=

WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA

NE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE

MODERATE MODERATE RAIN VIS MODERATE=

EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA

SE WINDS BACK NE 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA

STATE MODERATE CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

N WINDS BACK NW 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA

STATE MODERATE CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA

SE WINDS VEER S 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA

STATE MODERATE CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

NORTHEASTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA

N WINDS 16 TO 20M/S GUSTS 20 TO 24M/S BACK NW

WINDS 16 TO 20M/S GUSTS 20 TO 24M/S SEA STATE

ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH MIDDLE SNOW BECMG LIGHT SNOW

VIS MODERATE TO GOOD=

SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA

NW WINDS 16 TO 20M/S GUSTS 20 TO 24M/S SEA STATE

ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH LIGHT RAIN BECMG LIGHT SNOW

VIS GOOD=

KOREA STRAIT

NW WINDS 16 TO 20M/S GUSTS 20 TO 24M/S SEA STATE

ROUGH OVERCAST BECMG SUNNY VIS GOOD=

SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN

SW WINDS VEER W 20 TO 24M/S GUSTS 24 TO 28M/S SEA

STATE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH MODERATE RAIN VIS

MODERATE=

SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS

N WINDS VEER NE 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA

STATE MODERATE OVERCAST BECMG LIGHT RAIN VIS GOOD=

SEA WEST OF BONIN ISLANDS

SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S VEER W

WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE

MODERATE TO ROUGH OVERCAST VIS GOOD=

SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S DECR 06 TO

08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH OVERCAST

VIS GOOD=

SEA WEST OF NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS

E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S DECR 06 TO

08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH CLOUDY VIS

GOOD=

SEA SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES

E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S DECR 06 TO

08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE ROUGH MODERATE

RAIN VIS MODERATE=

SEA WEST OF GUAM

E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE

ROUGH CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

SEA NORTHEAST OF INDONESIA

E WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S DECR 06 TO

08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MODERATE

MODERATE RAIN VIS MODERATE=

SEA SOUTH OF JAWA

NW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE

MODERATE CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

SEA SOUTH OF SUMATERA

NW WINDS 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S BACK S

WINDS 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE

MODERATE CLOUDY VIS GOOD=

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