BCA：万亿刺激难救经济，中国复苏需更大动作？ Not Enough To Boost Animal Spirits

备受全球顶尖买方青睐 的独立研究机构 BCA Research 在北京时间10月30日发出了一片简评，标题为：“China Stimulus: Not Enough To Boost Animal Spirits”，认为单纯的经济刺激可能没办法激发市场热情。

While moving in the right direction, China’s latest stimulus measures are falling short of the mark to reflate the economy. The latest rumors extend this trend. News agencies reported discussions of a CNY 10 trillion bond issuance over three years. Six trillion would be used to boost local governments’ balance sheets, while four trillion would be used to buy idle land and housing.

虽然朝着正确方向前进，但中国最新的刺激措施还不足以使经济再通胀。最新的传闻延续了这一趋势。新闻机构报道称，有关部门正在讨论未来三年内发行10万亿元人民币的债券，其中6万亿元将用于增强地方的资产负债表，4万亿元将用于购买闲置土地和住房。

This falls short for two main reasons: the measures target financial stability more than macroeconomic reflation, and the rumored numbers are underwhelming.

这些措施主要存在两个不足：一是措施更关注金融稳定而非宏观经济再通胀，二是传闻中的数额不尽如人意。

According to our Emerging Market strategists, 6 trillion over three years does not drastically alter the current local government balance sheet debt of 70 trillion. While necessary, it will not aid the economy quickly.

根据我们新兴市场策略师的观点，三年内的6万亿元对目前约70万亿元的地方负债表债务不会带来显著的改变。虽然这是必要的，但不会迅速帮助经济复苏。

Unless Beijing announces measures resulting in large fiscal transfers to households, initiatives to meaningfully lift property prices, boost private business confidence, and make government officials focus on growth, China’s economy will remain depressed.

除非宣布将大规模财政转移支付给家庭、采取措施显著提升房价、提振私人企业信心并重视增长，否则经济将继续低迷。

Investors should keep an eye on measures such as credit demand, housing sales, and the number of anti-corruption investigations to assess whether China’s policy announcements are reviving animal spirits.

投资者应关注诸如信贷需求、房屋销售和反腐调查数量等指标，以评估政策的宣布是否在重振市场信心。

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