SFC Markets and Finance｜Global Experts Unveiling GBA's High-Quality Development

南方财经全媒体记者 李依农 深圳报道

The 2024 Guangdong High-quality Development Conference was held on February 18th, as the "first conference of the new year", showing Guangdong's commitment to high-quality economic development. What's happening on the ground? Let's hear from our correspondent Yang Yulai, reporting back from the scene.

Yang Yulai:I am currently at Shenzhen, where the conference is being held. This is the second year Guangdong decided to host the event on the first working day after the Spring Festival.

There are five forums held this afternoon, covering topics from urban and rural developments, integration of innovation and industry, and deepening cooperation of talents from Hong Kong and Macao.

This year, the conference is held in Shenzhen, a city regarded as the innovation hub of the GBA. There is a huge amount of leading high-tech companies going global from here, which really matches the theme of high-quality development.

Shenzhen's development sets an example for the world

For more on the cities in Guangdong, let’s hear from Thomas Sargent, 2011 Nobel Prize Winner for Economics, who believes that Shenzhen's development sets an example for the world.

Thomas J. Sargent: It's very entrepreneurial (here). There are some headwinds there in terms of the various environmental aspects, but I think this area, the Greater Bay Area here is unique. And a part of that is the great experiment in human history. Like the founding of Shenzhen, the risky experiment was done and then the successors said, it's an example for people all over the world. You go to conferences, at the international organizations, and some countries say, ‘why don't we try to have a Shenzhen? They did it.’ It's a good question to ask, because there were reasons that worked in Shenzhen, because of the characteristics of the Chinese people who went to work there, the hard work and so on.

To me, the Greater Bay Area means one thing. It means Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, in the area. And for an economist, especially at my age, it's a wonderful, truly miraculous region, which combines so many academic, scientific, entrepreneurial activities that it's a marvel to watch.

As people here know, there's worldwide, leading businesses (here). There are goods that are produced here, that are used all over the world. I have some of them, consume some of myself. So those are goods that people thought of in the last ten years. Just think in the next 10 or 20 years, there are goods that we can't imagine, that are produced by entrepreneurs and engineers here, they are going to be known not only in their Greater Bay Area, but throughout the world.

Improving productivity and quality of growth will benefit economy in long term

What's the significance of high-quality development for not just Guangdong, but possibly China's long-term economic growth? Let's get the scoop from Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch Ratings.

Brian Coulton: China's probably now move beyond the third stage of growth, where the sort of urbanization process, the capital investment that goes with that automatically generates growth of 5% to 7%. It's the economy has matured beyond that stage of the catch up development pressures have not really as powerful anymore.

We've got demographic headwinds as well. So I think it makes sense for policy to focus more on improving productivity and the quality of growth. But though the changes we're seeing in the new industries, they're still quite small as a share of the economy now.

Those developments while they might benefit things, on a sort of five-to-ten-year view, they're probably not going to make very much difference to the outlook over the next couple of years. I think that's gonna dominate things for the next two years. And these more structural shifts, the move to renewables and electric vehicles, etc., will help growth in the long term.

GBA’s tech innovation fuels long-term growth in China

With its impressive track record of driving China's economic growth for the past 35 years, Guangdong is crucial in promoting high-quality development and fostering new quality productivity. What role does Guangdong play in China's focus on innovation-led development? Let’s first turn in to Steve Brice, Global Chief Investment Officer at Standard Chartered Bank, for his insight.

Steve Brice:I think it's sort of really exciting area. Obviously, the technology chain, whether you're talking about hardware, whether you're talking about software or technological services and financial services as well, I think this is going to be absolutely critical to the success of the Chinese economy.

I think it's really exciting that they are making huge progress already, obviously. Certain companies from the region are huge companies already, and we're going to see more of those develops. So from an economic perspective, it’s going to be a key driver for driving long-term growth, but also for stock market value as well and stock market investors. The region is going to be increasingly important, the Silicon Valley type part of China. So, very exciting. We're watching this space. I think it's going to be good for the economy.

The GBA is a dynamic economic powerhouse of China

We'll also hear perspectives from AMRO’s Chief Economist, Dr. Hoe Ee Khor.

Hoe Ee Khor:I think increasingly, the Greater Bay Area, which includes Guangdong and also Hong Kong, will become a very important growth pole. Because Guangdong itself is already a very large economy. And it hosts some of the most dynamic, innovative companies, like Tencent, or the EVs and all those companies in Shenzhen. You combine that with Hong Kong, which is a major financial center, and it's going to be a very powerful economy as a whole.

There will be a lot of trade between that region and the rest of ASEAN. Hong Kong positions itself not just as a gateway to China, but also a gateway from China to the rest of the world. And Hong Kong is also diversifying its trade and investment links with other countries in the world. It is now actively forging FTA agreements with the rest of the world, including ASEAN. ASEAN is a natural region for Hong Kong to forge growth because it is a neighbor.

Looking forward, there will be a lot more cooperation and trade and investment links between that region and ASEAN.

GBA's economic takeoff hinges on its market integration

Looking into the future, what are the prospects for high-quality economic development in Guangdong? And what aspects can be further strengthened? let's get insights from Wang Haifeng, researcher at the Academy of Macroeconomic Research.

Wang Haifeng:Province like Guangdong, focusing on core cities and industrial parks, we need to prioritize talent, technology, digital economy, and technological innovation. We also need to enhance services mainly focused on technological innovation and research to facilitate the convergence of advanced manufacturing and high-end services.

This is a process, that requires Guangdong to align with international standards at a higher level. Firstly, can Guangdong approach Hong Kong's standards in the next five years in terms of economic openness? In my opinion, the next economic takeoff in the Pearl River Delta and the Greater Bay Area depends on the market integration within the Greater Bay Area. Our level of openness in Guangdong can be further elevated.

策划：于晓娜

监制：施诗

责任编辑：李依农

记者：杨雨莱 谢鸿州

制作：蔡于恬 李群

新媒体统筹：丁青云 曾婷芳 赖禧 黄达迅

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出品：南方财经全媒体集团