到2030年及以后的美国暖通空调市场

供暖、通风和空调（HVAC）行业正在摇摇欲坠，一年是前所未有的。

在美国，在市场明显反弹的情况下，除了常见的熟练劳动力短缺外，供应短缺和价格上涨已成为景观的一部分。供应链中断、高昂的能源和商品价格，更不用说疫情了，是一种全球现象，至少在未来几个月内将继续存在。

美国消费者将直接感受到海外天然气价格飙升的涟漪效应：环境影响评估预计，与去年相比，美国家庭在即将到来的冬天，天然气取暖平均将增加30%（电加热费用增加6%），部分原因是北方天气更冷。尽管如此，美国的能源价格仍然低于欧洲。

美国暖通空调长期市场

除了今天的紧张局势外，现在是更长远地看待影响我们行业的因素的好时机。COP26会议期间，美国联邦立法和国家对气候的承诺的关键要素将在未来几周内展开。这些不会立即转化为对美国暖通空调部门的头条影响，但未来十年的转型可能会很深远，无论它们最终是：

• 联邦立法，跟进2020年家庭希望计划（EE改进和承包商培训折扣）或CEAA版本（税收抵免，特别是节能建筑），
• 在州/县/市一级制定，建筑法规朝着更严格的能源效率标准发展（例如，加州CEC最近通过的标题24的2022 BEES，推动热泵和电动家庭），并且现在各个司法管辖区都有基准和BEPS，
• 用更严格的最低效率性能标准进行标准化（例如，能源部计划为中央交流和热泵更新2023年MEPS），
• 在行业直接参与、氢氟碳化合物逐步淘汰、2020年《AIM法案》通过及其最近由环保局敲定其规则或ESG目标的预示的推动下，
• 市场大趋势的结果是，数字化、IAQ、效率和脱碳相结合，形成了一波新的创新浪潮。

鉴于能源生产商和公用事业公司的投资周期很长，我们已经看到了一些变化，已经过了2030年。特别有趣的是，看看天然气和电力公用事业，无论是受白条还是PUC监管，其IRP的长期规划，费率结构，能源效率计划，以及它们与最终用户的关系，无论是住宅、商业还是工业。与暖通空调行业成为分布式能源的相互作用，以及越来越多地与Big Tech and Controls纯游戏（例如谷歌的Nest、物联网设备）的相互作用已经很清楚了。

BSRIA暖通空调2030

在BSRIA，我们做出了新的努力，以审视暖通空调行业未来的十年，从基于两个关键情景的住宅/轻型商业供暖的赢家和输产品和解决方案的长期视角开始。我们将于11月3日主办一次研讨会，以互动讨论为舞台，并介绍我们涵盖美国、中国和欧洲的“暖通空调2030”出版物。

可以肯定的是，暖通空调部门在未来的能源和建筑转型中可以发挥作用。ASHRAE的2021-2022年公共政策优先事项或AHRI关于脱碳的立场声明同样承认这一点。

The heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) industry is reeling with a year like no other.

In the US, amid a clear market rebound, supply shortages and price increases have become part of the landscape on top of the familiar dearth of skilled labour. Supply chain disruptions, high energy and commodity prices, not to mention the pandemic, are a global phenomenon and are here to stay at least for the coming months.

Even the ripple effect of sky-rocketing natural gas prices overseas will be felt directly by the US consumer: EIA anticipates that US households will pay on average 30% more for natural gas heating (6% more for electrical heating) in the upcoming winter compared to last year, partly due to colder weather in the North. Having said that, US energy prices are still significant below those in Europe.

US HVAC Market in the long-term

Beyond today’s tensions, it is a good time to take a longer view of what will affect our industry. Key elements of US federal legislation and national commitments for the climate during the COP26 conference are about to unfold in the next few weeks. Those will not translate immediately into headline-grabbing impacts for the US HVAC sector, but the transformations in the decade to come could run deep, whether they end up being:

• Federally legislated, with follow-ups to the 2020 Hope-for-Homes program (rebates for EE improvements & contractor training) or with a version of the CEAA (tax credits, in particular for energy-efficient buildings),
• Elaborated at state / county /municipal level, where building codes evolve towards stricter energy efficiency standards (e.g., Title 24’s 2022 BEES as adopted recently by California’s CEC, pushing for heat pumps and electric-ready homes) and where benchmarking and BEPS are now seen in various jurisdictions,
• Standardized with stricter Minimum Efficiency Performance Standards (e.g., DOE’s planned 2023 MEPS update for central AC and heat pumps),
• Driven by the industry’s direct engagement, with the phase-down of HFCs, the 2020 passage of the AIM Act and its recent rule finalization by EPA, or with the heralding of ESG goals,
• The result of market mega-trends where digitalization, IAQ, efficiency and decarbonization combine into a new wave of innovation.

We have seen some of the changes already affect energy producers and utilities, given their long investment cycles, already looking past 2030. It will be interesting in particular to look at the gas and electric utilities, whether IOUs or PUC-regulated, their IRP long-term planning, rate structures, energy-efficiency program, and their relation to end-users, whether residential, commercial, or industrial. The interplay with the HVAC industry to become also a Distributed Energy Resource and, increasingly, with Big Tech and Controls pure-plays (think Google’s Nest, IoT devices) is already clear.

BSRIA HVAC 2030

At BSRIA, we set out a new effort to look at the decade to come for the HVAC sector, starting with a long-term view of the winning and losing products and solutions in residential/light commercial heating, based on two key scenarios. We are hosting a seminar on November 3rd to set the stage with an interactive discussion and to introduce our “HVAC 2030” Publications covering the US, China, and Europe.

It is certain that the HVAC sector has a role to play in the energy & buildings transformations ahead. ASHRAE’s Public Policy Priorities for 2021-2022 or AHRI’s Position Statement on Decarbonization similarly recognize this.