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大师NO.022
对话哈佛大学经济系教授、哈佛大学经济学院原院长本杰明·弗里德曼
60S要点速读：
2、特朗普总统（对美联储主席鲍威尔）的公开批评是不负责任的。
3、2019年上半年，美联储领导人观察经济发展走势之后再做决定是正确的做法。
以下为专访精编：
网易研究局·大师：有观点认为，美联储的加息进程将在12月发生逆转。但最后美联储依旧采取了强硬的加息措施。您怎么看？
本杰明·弗里德曼：从美国经济的角度来看，当前劳动力市场达到甚至超过充分就业水平，美联储摒弃扩张性的货币政策是一种明智的选择，至少应该保持中立，一定程度的限制措施或许会起到更好的效果。随着最近短期利率上调，美联储才逐渐开始回到一些观察者认为是中立的范围。货币政策想要达到中立的立场，可能仍需多次加息。
网易研究局·大师：您如何看特朗普和鲍威尔之间的角力？现在来看，美联储当初没有选择耶伦是错误的决定吗？
本杰明·弗里德曼：珍妮特·耶伦任职美联储主席期间做得非常出色，杰罗姆·鲍威尔现在做得也不错。如果当初特朗普总统提名耶伦女士连任，美联储自然是迎来一位靠谱的“女掌门”，但现在鲍威尔先生也管理的不错。特朗普总统的公开批评是不负责任的。
网易研究局·大师：美联储是否评估了加息可能对股市造成的负面影响？
本杰明·弗里德曼：是的，我相信美联储的资深专家已经仔细考虑过此项政策的影响，包括会对股市造成的潜在影响。
网易研究局·大师：美联储加息是否会扭转美国经济的发展势头？
本杰明·弗里德曼： 美联储如果想要收缩扩张性的货币政策，减缓经济增速势在必行，但这不会让经济增速放缓至零。如果因为这个原因或其他任何原因导致经济停止增长，我相信美联储会转变方向。
网易研究局·大师： 您如何看待美联储决定减少明年加息次数？
本杰明·弗里德曼：现在判断美联储将需要加息到什么程度还为时过早。如果经济增长迅速放缓，或许不需要进一步加息。但如果增速继续超过潜在增长率，那么将需要采取更严格的利率政策继续加息。2019年上半年，美联储领导人观察经济发展走势之后再做决定是正确的做法。
本杰明·弗里德曼简介
本杰明·弗里德曼（Benjamin M. Friedman），美国哈佛大学威廉·约瑟夫·迈尔政治经济学教授，著名经济学家。本杰明·弗里德曼先后获得哈佛大学的文学学士学位、文学硕士学位和经济学博士学位，1972年开始在哈佛大学执教，曾任哈佛大学经济学院院长，被认为是“货币学派”的新领军者及全球化主义的权威研究者。凭借多年研究美国经济政策所具有的远见卓识，多次为美国政策制定者与公共职位候选人就经济问题提供建议。
FOR ENGLISH:
FED has raised interest rate regardless of the objection of president Trump on 19th. And the main stock markets in the world fell sharply, which have arisen the public concern. Here are the points of Benjamin M. Friedman, Professor of Department of Economics at Harvard University.
NetEase Economic Research Bureau: There was a view that Fed's interest rate hike process will be reversed in December. But, finally, a tough rate hike was adopted. What is the reason?
Benjamin M. Friedman: With the U.S. economy operating at or beyond full employment, and real growth at or above potential, it is wise to remove any remaining elements of expansionary monetary policy. At the very least, the central bank's policy should be neutral; and some degree of restraint would be even better. With the latest increase in the short-term interest rates, the Federal Reserve is only just now beginning to be back to a range that some observers would consider neutral. Depending on one's view of the equilibrium real interest rate (a question on which research is far from conclusive), several more increases may be necessary to attain a neutral stance.
NetEase Economic Research Bureau: How do you understand the game between Trump and Powell? Now, is it a wrong decision that FED did not choose Yellen?
Benjamin M. Friedman: Janet Yellen did an outstanding job as Federal Reserve chair. Jerome Powell is doing a fine job now. If the president had allowed Ms. Yellen to continue, the Federal Reserve would have been in good hand, but it is now in good hands with Mr. Powell. The president's public criticism is irresponsible.
NetEase Economic Research Bureau: Has FED assessed the possible negative impact of interest rate hikes on the stock market?
Benjamin M. Friedman: Yes, I believe the senior people at the Federal Reserve have thought carefully about the implications of their policy actions, including potential consequences for the stock market.
NetEase Economic Research Bureau: The Federal Reserve raised interest rate and the U.S stock market plunged. Will the interest rate hike reverse the momentum of the U.S. economy?
Benjamin M. Friedman: Slowing the economy's growth is what the central bank's move to a less expansionary monetary policy is supposed to do. It is unlikely to slow the growth all the way to zero. If that were to happen -- or if the growth were to stop for any other reason -- I am confident that the Federal Reserve would reverse course.
NetEase Economic Research Bureau: How will Fed's interest rate hike impact China's economy? Will it further increase downward pressure on China's economy? How should China respond?
Benjamin M. Friedman: I do not know enough about China's economy to answer this question.
NetEase Economic Research Bureau: What do you think of Fed's decision to reduce the times to raise its interest rate next year?
Benjamin M. Friedman: It is too early to judge how much further the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates. If the economy's growth slows quickly, perhaps no further increase will be needed. But if growth continues to exceed the growth of potential, then a tighter policy will be warranted and therefore interest rates will need to rise beyond current levels. The Federal Reserve's leaders are correct to wait to see how the economy develops in the first part of 2019 before committing themselves.
NetEase Economic Research Bureau: How should investors in the U.S and global stock markets cope with the negative impact of the Fed's interest rate hike? Are there bubbles in the stock markets of the U.S, especially in technology stocks? And is it possible to get back to bull market?
Benjamin M. Friedman: Most observers of the U.S. equity market have been commenting for some time on the high level of valuations. There are plenty of reasons to think stock prices would well fluctuate -- either up or down -- other than monetary policy.
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