从“豪猪”到“蜂巢”，美国把台湾当成什么了？

近日，“美国在台协会”（AIT）台北办事处处长谷立言在台中市一场论坛上大放厥词，鼓噪台湾应打造空中、水上和水下无人作战系统的“蜂巢”以“吓阻”中国大陆。这一言论本质是升级台湾地区的政治“棋子”角色，让台湾地区成为美国围堵中国的“炮灰”，因此，该言论在岛内引发强烈反弹，也招致国务院台湾事务办公室（简称“国台办”）的严厉批评。7月8日，国台办发言人指出，谷立言的言行违背了特朗普总统所作的严肃表态，破坏台海和平稳定，企图把中美关系和两岸关系引向十分危险的方向。

“蜂巢论”的背后算计

众所周知，美国是影响两岸统一的最大外部因素，台湾地区在美国的亚太棋盘中扮演重要角色。二战后，美国构筑围堵中国的第一岛链，台湾地区是这一岛链中联结日本和菲律宾的重要节点。美国认为，如果中国大陆收复台湾地区，可利用台湾岛的地理优势走进太平洋。因此，美国一直通过扶植和控制台湾当局的方式，把台湾地区打造成遏制中国的前沿阵地。

在中国大陆积贫积弱时，美国通过对台军售先进武器装备，形成对中国大陆武器质量的代差，企图遏阻解放军解放台湾地区。当前，中国大陆军力已形成对台湾地区的压倒性优势，美国转而从“不对称作战”角度入手，向台湾地区兜售“不对称作战”思路，先后抛出“豪猪论”“地狱场景论”以及本次的“蜂巢论”等具体作战样态。“豪猪论”最早于2008年由美国官员威廉•S•莫瑞（William S.Murray）提出，蔡英文执政时期正式采用。具体做法是，强化台湾地区的防空导弹等能力，让台湾地区成为一只全身长满刺的“豪猪”，从而让解放军“无从下口”。2024年6月，美军印太司令部司令帕帕罗（Samuel Paparo）提出“地狱场景论”，核心构想是在台海冲突爆发时投放数量庞大的无人机，将台湾岛和台湾海峡变为“无人地狱”，以此迟滞解放军的行动，为美军争取时间。

如今，谷立言提出的“蜂巢论”，与此前的操弄一脉相承，都是要台湾地区发展无人作战系统，通过非对称杀伤迟滞解放军作战。不同的是，“豪猪论”让台湾被动防御，“地狱景观”要重点发展空中无人机，而“蜂巢论”则是将台湾地区武装成覆盖空中、水面和水下的无人作战系统，“棋子”功能被进一步强化。

这些奇谈怪论本质上是妄图让台湾地区“以小博大”，提升台湾岛对抗大陆的实力，企图让大陆因忌惮而放弃采取必要反制手段，使台湾地区继续充当美国的政治“棋子”。

谁从“蜂巢”中获利？

谷立言等人的错误言论在岛内引发舆论强烈反对，台海和平稳定才是岛内主流民意。岛内多项民调显示，高达八成以上的台湾民众希望台海维持稳定，反对赖清德当局挑衅中国大陆的政策。今年上半年，超过114.5万人次通过“小三通”入境大陆，同比增长26.4%，创下历史新高。“中时电子报”等岛内媒体纷纷撰文，批评谷立言是“台湾太上皇”，相关说辞“暴露出台湾在美方棋盘上的角色越来越工具化、功能化”，“台湾始终只是一个不断被更换包装的不对称筹码”，“蜂巢论”只不过是“按照美国需要重新组装台湾”。

然而，令人悲哀的是，岛内的执政者却极力迎合谷立言的主张。民进党当局不满足于常规的“年度防务预算”，推出高达1.25万亿元新台币的“防务特别预算案”。近日，又提出了“防务自主无人载具采购特别条例”草案，拟编列2100亿元新台币采购滨海监侦型无人机、滨海攻击型无人机及小型自杀式无人艇等项目。同时，台湾地区在野力量也提出类似的无人机提案，金额高达2400亿元新台币。

如果“蜂巢”策略被执行，将对岛内经济社会安全造成极大危害。

一方面，巨额“防务预算开支”将大幅增加台湾地区财政负担，挤占社会福利与教育等公共支出。目前，台湾地区并未受到任何威胁，也不存在即时战争危险。台湾每年总预算仅约1万亿元新台币，如果拿出五分之一甚至四分之一用于购置武器而非岛内民众所需的福利支出，于情于理都说不通。同时，台湾地区政客和军队贪腐丑闻不绝于耳，这些钱有多少会流入绿营高官口袋？

另一方面，美国和绿营热衷于炒作台海风险，不过是满足各自利益。如果台海发生战争，岛内的高科技企业为保住经济利益，很可能搬迁到美国。而这恰好符合美国“制造业回流”诉求，所以美国从不吝啬鼓噪“台海冲突”。目前，台湾地区的台积电等高科技企业已砸巨资在美国设厂，以解决美国对东亚地区的芯片依赖等问题。民进党的目的更加自私，炒作台海风险可以煽动岛内民众的“反中抗中”情绪，从而在年底的“九合一”选举中继续在岛内掌控权力。除二者获利之外，其他各方都是利益受损者，岛内的普通民众则是付出真金白银、承受战争风险的最大受害者。

从“豪猪”到“地狱景观”，再到“蜂巢”，美国为台湾地区炮制的“不对称作战”概念不断升级，但台湾地区始终是美国霸权棋盘上的“棋子”，随时可以成为牺牲品。两岸同胞血脉相连，唯有携手遏制“台独”分裂行径、拒绝外部势力插手，才能真正守护台海和平。

From Porcupine to Beehive: What Does the U.S. Take Taiwan for?

Recently, Raymond Greene, Director of the Taipei Office of the so-called American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) unleashed a barrage of inflammatory rhetoric at a forum in Taichung City. He urged Taiwan to build a “beehive” of unmanned combat systems across air, surface and underwater domains to “deter” China. This rhetoric essentially seeks to escalate Taiwan’s role as a geopolitical pawn turning it into expendable cannon fodder for the U.S. containment strategy. Unsurprisingly, Greene’s remarks ignited a firestorm of backlash across the island and drew a stern rebuke from the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council. On July 8, a spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office stated that Greene’s words and actions violate the solemn commitments made by President Trump sabotage peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits and attempt to steer China-U.S. relations and cross-Straits relations in a perilously dangerous direction.

Calculations Behind the “Beehive” Theory

It is an open secret that the United States is the primary external factor hindering cross-Straits unification and Taiwan plays a pivotal role in Washington’s Asia-Pacific chessboard. After World War II, the U.S. forged the so-called “first island chain” to contain China with Taiwan as the linchpin connecting Japan and the Philippines. Washington fears that a reunified China would leverage the island’s geography to project power into the Pacific. Thus, the U.S. has long sought to mold Taiwan into a forward bastion against China by propping up and controlling the Taiwan authorities.

When the Chinese mainland was poor and weak, the U.S. maintained a technological edge by selling advanced weaponry to deter the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from liberating Taiwan. Today, however, the PLA holds overwhelming military superiority over Taiwan. In response, the U.S. has pivoted to an “asymmetric warfare” approach force-feeding Taiwan a series of concepts: the “porcupine” strategy, the “hellscape” scenario, and now, the “beehive” theory. The “porcupine” strategy was first proposed in 2008 by U.S. official William S. Murray and officially adopted by the Tsai Ing-wen administration. Its aim was to bolster Taiwan’s air defense and missile capabilities, turning the island into a “porcupine” bristling with spines to make it “too tough to chew” for the PLA. In June 2024, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command introduced the “hellscape” scenario which envisions deploying massive drone swarms in the event of a Taiwan Straits conflict and turning the island and surrounding waters into an “unmanned hell” to delay the actions of the PLA and buy time for U.S. forces.

Now, Greene’s “beehive” theory doubles down on this playbook, urging Taiwan to develop unmanned systems across all domains to achieve asymmetric lethality and bog down the PLA. The difference is that the “porcupine” was about passive defense, the “hellscape” focuses on aerial drones, while the “beehive” envisions arming Taiwan with a comprehensive network of unmanned systems covering air, surface, and underwater domains, cementing its role as a U.S. pawn.

At their core, these bizarre propositions aim to enable Taiwan to throw a sprat to catch a mackerel, bolstering its ability to confront the mainland, attempting to make the mainland give up necessary countermeasures, and allowing Taiwan to continue to serve as a political pawn of the United States.

Who Cashes in on the “Beehive”?

The erroneous remarks of Raymond Greene and others have sparked widespread public outrage. Peace and stability are what most people in Taiwan truly crave. Polls in the island show that more than 80% of people in Taiwan want to maintain stability and oppose Lai Ching-te’s policy of provoking the Chinese mainland. In the first half of this year, over 1.14 million people entered the Chinese mainland via the “mini three links” – direct exchanges between coastal Fujian, Kinmen and Matsu. The figure marks a year-on-year increase of 26.4%, setting a new all-time high. Taiwan regional media outlets such as the China Times have published articles criticizing Greene as wanting to be the “Supreme Emperor of Taiwan” and that related rhetoric “exposes how Taiwan has increasingly become a tool in the U.S.’s political game” “Taiwan has always been a bargaining chip that is constantly being repackaged and beat down” and the “beehive” theory is just “reassembling Taiwan according to U.S. needs”.

Tragically, the island’s ruling authorities are eager to play along. The DPP administration, not content with its regular budget has proposed a NT$1.25-trillion “special defense budget”. A recent draft called Special Regulations for the Procurement of Indigenous Unmanned Vehicles for Defense plans to allocate NT$210 billion for items such as coastal surveillance and reconnaissance drones, coastal attack drones and small-scale suicide unmanned boats. Meanwhile, opposition forces in Taiwan have proposed similar drone plans with an even higher price tag of NT$240 billion.

If implemented, the “beehive” strategy will be catastrophic for the island’s economy and social security.

On the one hand, the huge defense expenditure will significantly increase the fiscal burden on the Taiwan region and strangle public funds for social welfare and education. At present, the Taiwan region faces no threat or imminent danger of war. The island’s total annual budget is only about NT$1 trillion. Taking one-fifth or even one-quarter of that for weapon procurement rather than for the welfare that island residents need is unjustifiable by any logic or reason. Moreover, with corruption scandals involving island politicians and the military repeatedly surfacing, how much of this money will line the pockets of DPP senior officials?

On the other hand, the U.S. and the DPP are keen to hype cross-Straits risks solely to serve their own interests. Should a conflict erupt in the Taiwan Straits, high-tech enterprises on the island, in order to protect their economic interests, would likely relocate to the U.S.. That conveniently aligns with Washington’s push for manufacturing reshoring, which is why the U.S. never tires of stoking “Taiwan Straits conflict” rhetoric. Already, major high-tech firms on the island, such as TSMC, have invested heavily in setting up plants in the U.S. to address America’s reliance on East Asia for chips. The DPP’s motives are even more self-serving. Fanning cross-Straits risks allows it to whip up “anti-China” sentiment among island residents, thereby clinging to power in the local elections at the end of the year. Apart from these two beneficiaries, every other party stands to lose. The biggest victims are the ordinary people of Taiwan who will pay with their money and bear the risk of war

From “porcupine” to “hellscape” to “beehive”, the U.S. continually upgrades its asymmetric warfare concepts for Taiwan. Yet, the island remains nothing more than a pawn on America’s hegemonic chessboard, disposable at a moment’s notice. Compatriots across the Straits are bound by blood. Only by joining hands to resolutely oppose separatism and reject external interference can we truly safeguard peace in the Taiwan Straits.