这位欧洲的前总统呼吁：别低估中国的新机遇

编者按：中国正在与欧盟商定建立磋商机制，旨在重启双方互利共赢的经济关系。7月21日，斯洛文尼亚前总统、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院外籍高级研究员达尼洛·图尔克（Danilo Türk）在发表英文评论文章指出， 当下亟需转变思维模式：从过度谨慎转向审慎乐观——从“中国冲击2.0”的思维定式，转向认可“中国机遇2.0”。现将中文译文及英文原文发布如下： （中文译文约1800字，预计阅读时间5分钟）

▲报道截图如上

在截至6月的一系列会晤中，中国与欧盟商定建立磋商机制，旨在重启双方互利共赢的经济关系。双方据此设立四大专项工作组，覆盖贸易与投资平衡、出口管制、知识产权以及世界贸易组织改革四大领域。

若进展顺利，这些工作组将为中欧之间建立稳定的贸易关系奠定基础，从而对整个全球贸易体系产生积极影响。相关讨论将持续至10月，并在此期间作出进一步决策。

若低估这一新兴机遇的重要性，将是严重的错误。当下亟需转变思维模式：从过度谨慎转向审慎乐观——从“中国冲击2.0”的思维定式，转向认可“中国机遇2.0”。

审慎乐观并非无据可循，我们可从三个维度加以分析：两个短期现实因素，一个系统性深层因素。

首先，2025年9月，中国宣布在维持发展中国家地位的前提下，在世贸组织当前及未来谈判中不再寻求新的特殊与差别待遇。这一决定彰显了中国与包括欧盟在内的发达国家构建新型关系的真切意愿。

第二个现实因素在于，中国已意识到高度依赖出口的时代已然落幕，为实现自身增长，必须重塑发展平衡。因此，部分西方国家所谓的中国“产能过剩”担忧，理应与中国“着力扩大内需、消化更多本土产能”的努力一同，得到审慎、全面的考量。

但要让“冲击”真正转化为机遇，仍需更多行动。6月25日，李强总理在辽宁大连举办的夏季达沃斯论坛上发表讲话时指出：“中国新兴产业的技术和产品带给世界的不是冲击，而是机遇；不是威胁，而是赋能。”2025年数据显示，中国科学研究和技术服务业新设外资企业数量同比增长27.2%，全年新增外资企业达1.4万家，其中不乏欧洲投资企业。这一发展蕴含的变革潜力巨大，也让思维从“中国冲击2.0”转向“中国机遇2.0”具备了现实支撑。

除了当前显而易见的变化迹象外，还亟需推动全球贸易体系的系统性变革。欧盟与中国共同设立的四个工作小组之一便专注于世界贸易组织的改革。

这一目标看似希望渺茫，因为世贸组织改革有赖于多方参与，其中美国的角色至关重要。但我们不应低估世贸组织改革落地的可能性。回顾历史不难发现，自二战后建立以来，国际贸易体系几乎每十年就会经历一次改革。20世纪五六十年代，关税及贸易总协定框架下的两轮贸易谈判顺利推进，大幅削减了关税水平。

随后在20世纪70年代，关贸总协定（GATT）东京回合谈判达成了一系列旨在降低非关税贸易壁垒（如国家补贴和反补贴税）的协议。1986年启动、1994年结束的乌拉圭回合谈判进一步增加了关于服务贸易、贸易相关投资措施以及知识产权方面的协议。此后，还建立了完善的争端解决机制。

全球贸易体系的动态演进史，理应激励中欧四大工作组的谈判人员秉持勇气与远见推进磋商，为改革后的新型全球贸易体系提出方案。契合当下需求的高水平改革目标，让这一新兴机遇值得双方以严肃、坚定的态度展开谈判。

英文原文

Courage, foresight needed for China-EU dialogue

Danilo Turk

In a series of meetings culminating in June, China and the European Union agreed to create a consultation mechanism aimed at renewing their mutually beneficial economic relations. Consequently, four "workstreams" were established, covering trade and investment balancing, export controls, intellectual property rights and reform of the World Trade Organization.

If successful, these workstreams will pave the way toward stable trade relations between China and the EU, which will have positive effects on the global trading system as a whole. Discussions under these workstreams will continue until October, when further decisions will have to be taken.

It would be a serious mistake if the importance of the emerging opportunity were underestimated. What is needed now is a shift in the mindset: from excessive caution to careful optimism — from the mindset of a "China Shock 2.0" to recognition of "China Opportunity 2.0".

There are reasons that justify cautious optimism. Let us consider three of them — two immediate and one systemic.

First, in September 2025, China announced that it would not seek new special and differential treatment in current and future WTO negotiations, while maintaining its status as a developing country. This decision signals a genuine willingness to build a new type of relationship between China and the developed world, including the EU.

The second immediate reason relates to China's recognition that the era of heavy reliance on exports is ending and that a different balance must be struck in the interest of its own growth. The concerns raised in some Western countries about what has been described as Chinese "overcapacity" therefore merit careful and balanced consideration, alongside China's own efforts "to generate sufficient domestic demand to absorb much more of what its factories produce".

But more is required to ensure that "shock" becomes opportunity. In his speech at the Summer Davos conference in Dalian, Liaoning province, on June 25, Premier Li Qiang proposed that "what China's technologies and products in emerging industries bring to the world is not a shock, but an opportunity; not a threat, but empowerment". The data for 2025 showed that the number of foreign-funded enterprises established in China in the fields of scientific research and technological services grew by 27.2 percent year-on-year. This means 14,000 foreign-funded enterprises, including those with investment from Europe, were established that year in China. The transformative potential of this development is substantial, and it justifies the hope for a change of mindset from "China Shock 2.0" to "China Opportunity 2.0".

In addition to the immediate, current signs of change, there is also a need to promote systemic changes in the global trading system. One of the four workstreams established by the EU and China is focused on reform of the World Trade Organization.

This looks like a long shot, since reform of the organization depends on many actors, including, importantly, the United States. However, let us not underestimate the possibility of WTO reform being carried out. It is useful to recall that the international trading system has been reformed practically every other decade since its creation in the aftermath of World War II. In the 1950s and 1960s, two successful rounds of trade negotiations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade substantially reduced tariffs.

Subsequently, in the 1970s, the Tokyo Round of GATT negotiations produced a number of agreements designed to reduce nontariff barriers to trade such as state subsidies and countervailing duties. The Uruguay Round, launched in 1986 and concluded in 1994, added agreements on trade in services, trade-related investment measures and intellectual property rights. Later still, an elaborate dispute settlement mechanism was established.

This dynamic history of the global trading system should inspire the European and Chinese negotiators of all four workstreams to approach the issues with courage and foresight and produce proposals for a new, reformed global trading system. A high-level ambition for reform, commensurate with the existing needs, makes the emerging opportunity worthy of serious and determined negotiations.

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