《天然气工业》：中国天然气发展战略研究相关双语文章推荐

本期为大家推荐发表于《天然气工业》的6篇双语文章，内容涵盖天然气产业“十四五”发展成就与“十五五”展望、地下储气库建设进展、产业链韧性评估及价格机制改革等，全面呈现当前我国天然气产业的发展现状、核心难题与未来方向，希望能为行业同仁提供参考借鉴，共同推动中国天然气产业在能源转型中行稳致远。

01

中国“十四五”天然气产业发展回顾与“十五五”展望

China's natural gas industry: Review of the 14th Five-Year Plan and prospects of the 15th Five-Year Plan

【Abstract】What historic achievements have been made in the development of each link of China's natural gas industry chain during the 14th Five-Year Plan period? Facing the opportunities and challenges, how should the natural gas industry achieve high-quality development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period? To get the answers to these questions, this paper presents a systematic review of achievements China's natural gas industry has made during the 14th Five-Year Plan period in terms of reserves/production increment of domestic resources, utilization of overseas resources, infrastructure guarantee capacities, domestic consumption, and the regulatory and institutional system across the entire industrial chain. Also, this paper thoroughly analyzes the opportunities and challenges facing the natural gas industry, and forecasts the strategic positioning and development prospect of China's natural gas industry amid the energy transition during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Finally, this paper proposes a long-term sustainable development of the natural gas industry. The following results are obtained. First, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's natural gas industry has registered an annual average increment of 245×108 m3 in gas consumption and of 140×108 m3 in domestic gas production, contributing greatly to the enhanced capacities of resource supply and gas storage for peak-shaving, along with a series of significant achievements such as continuous improvement in industrial chain resilience and new breakthroughs in construction of regulations and reform of systems/mechanisms. Second, the natural gas industry enjoys the opportunities brought by stable economic growth, industrial upgrading and transformation, and transition to dual control over the amount and intensity of carbon emissions, and also faces the challenges including rising geopolitical risks in resource import, greater difficulties in achieving additional reserves/production of resources with relatively low quality domestically, insufficient leveraging of natural gas' properties of clean, low-carbon and flexibility, and arduous market-based indepth reform of the pricing mechanism. Third, during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the natural gas industry will maintain a momentum of rapid development and a further steady growth of market demand. It is expected to see a gas consumption reaching about 5 500×108 m3 and a generally sufficient supply capacity by 2030. The overall resource supply capacity is sufficient and favorable conditions are in place to ensure market development. It is concluded that, to realize the long-term sustainable development of the natural gas industry, it is suggested that future efforts should focus on the following aspects: (1) continuously implementing the actions of increasing reserves and production, (2) making proactive planning of overseas resources, (3) continuously improving the construction of gas storage capacity, (4) expanding the directions of market optimization and utilization, (5) promoting the construction of a new petroleum system, and (6) deepening the reform of systems and mechanisms.

02

中国天然气行业“十五五”发展展望：基础、挑战和建议

Prospect of China's natural gas industry in the 15thFive-Year Plan period: Foundation, challenges, and proposals

【Abstract】Natural gas, as a key bridge between traditional fossil energy and renewable energy, is increasingly prominent as a strategic resource in the 15th Five-Year Plan period, a critical phase of energy transition. Based on the review of achievements in China's natural gas industry in the 14th Five-Year Plan period, combined with the logic of energy transition and supply-demand forecast in the new age, the opportunities for and challenges to China's natural gas industry in the 15th Five-Year Plan period are systematically discussed, and the corresponding strategies and countermeasures are proposed. The following results are obtained. First, natural gas will play a dual role in the new energy system as an alternative to high-carbon fossil energy and a helpmate to new energy. Second, China's natural gas production capacity is expected to exceed 3 000×108 m3/a in the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Third, China's natural gas industry is presumed to witness an ease supply and a downward price. By 2030, China's natural gas consumption is predicted to reach (5 700-5 900)×108 m3, suggesting a broad market space. Nonetheless, the industry will be challenged by new energy substitution and weak peak-shaving capacity of gas storage. With a view to the improvement of industry chain and the policy guidance, strategies and countermeasures for natural gas development are proposed as follows. First, a multi-source supply system is established to enhance natural gas accessibility. Second, bottlenecks in the natural gas pipeline network are broken to ensure delivery pervasiveness. Third, a resilient consumption ecosystem is built to consolidate supply security and enhance supply stability. Fourth, pain points in costs are addressed, especially by reducing the source-end costs, to improve the natural gas utilization economy. Fifth, a sustainable development mode is established, aiming to fulfill the mission of transition towards low-carbon energy and strengthen the due responsibilities and commitments. Sixth, reform activities and policy guidance are intensified with respect to the oil/gas mining rights transfer mechanism, the regulation and fair openness of infrastructures, the natural gas price linkage mechanism, and relevant policies for natural gas power generation.

03

中国天然气地下储气库重大理论、关键技术进展与展望

Major theories and key technologies of underground natural gas storage facilities in China: Progress and prospects

【Abstract】China has entered a rapid growth period of underground gas storages (UGSs) since 2019. Nonetheless, there are a lot of bottleneck problems on UGSs. Specifically, for gas reservoir storages, some storages in service exhibit a low ratio of actual to expected working gas volume, and it is difficult to design and construct UGSs from low-permeability pan-connected gas reservoirs; for salt cavern storages, the working gas volume mining speed and storage space utilization need to be enhanced; for oil reservoir storages, the storage construction mechanism and relevant technologies are still at the exploratory stage. This paper presents a systematic examination on the storage construction mechanism, storage space optimization and other aspects of different types of UGSs (gas reservoirs, salt caverns, and oil reservoirs), and summarizes the key/core technologies that have supported the rapid growth of UGSs in China in the past five years. The results are obtained in four aspects. First, three main technologies are formed, including the optimization of the maximum allowable storage pressure of the inservice UGSs, the storage construction from large-scale, low-permeability, pan-connected gas reservoirs, and the optimization of coordinated peak shaving of UGS groups, which have improved the results of storage construction from gas reservoirs. Second, the large borehole and horizontal cavern mining technology and the sump void space utilization prediction technology are developed for salt cavern storages. Third, the technologies for simulating gas-liquid high-speed interactive rolling displacement and phase behaviors of periodic injection-withdrawal oil and gas system are established, a new method for predicting the capacity of storage rebuilt from oil reservoir considering the coupling of displacement and mass transfer is formed, and a new model of synergy between gas storage construction and enhanced oil recovery in oil reservoirs is considered. Fourth, the technical orientations of UGS construction and operation and the technical requirements for the diversified utilization of underground space are proposed. It is concluded that the technical advancements obtained in the past five years in gas reservoir, salt cavern and oil reservoir storages have enabled the working gas capacity doubled from 100×108 m3 to 200×108 m3. This research is of great significance to the construction of UGSs and the comprehensive utilization of underground space in China.

04

中国天然气产业链系统韧性评估体系、模型与情景仿真

Resilience assessment system, model and scenario simulation of China's natural gas industry chain system

【Abstract】As an important "stabilizer" and "regulator" in the process of China's energy transition, natural gas is facing problems such as expanding import scale and high external dependence, which will cause serious harm to China's energy security in the event of import interruption. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to analyze the resilience of China's natural gas industry chain system and assess its bearing and recovery capacities under the impact of import shortage. Current research on the resilience of natural gas industry chain system mainly focuses on the theoretical level, with weak integration with the actual situation of China's industry chain, and poor guidance and operability in production and operation. To this end, this paper establishes a static-dynamic combined resilience assessment system for natural gas industry chain system covering "import network, domestic supply and demand, and emergency response mechanism", and an ecological network model of China's natural gas import to analyze the robustness and key nodes of the import network, which serve as the input conditions of the subsequent model. Then, a dynamic model of China's natural gas industry chain system is established to analyze the recovery capacity of China's natural gas industry chain system under different time scales, different scenarios of gas supply interruption and different emergency measures. Finally, policy measures to enhance the resilience of China's natural gas industry chain system are proposed based on the characteristics of natural gas production, supply, storage and distribution in China. The following results are obtained. First, China's natural gas import network has become increasingly complex, with an increase in the number of import source countries and import routes; the proportion of imports from various countries tends to be decentralized and the ability to resist import risks has been enhanced. But the strategic vulnerability of key chanenels such as the Strait of Malacca is still prominent. Second, when there is a shortfall of 54% LNG imports for 90 days in the non-heating season, the reserve contingency can ensure the balanced supply and demand of natural gas industry chains system; while in the heating season, demand-side reduction measures must be initiated in order to restore supply-demand balance. Third, when there is a shortfall of 54% of LNG imports for five years, it is difficult to make up for the shortfall by relying on endogenous adjustments, such as reducing energy intensity and energy substitution, among which raising energy substitution rate is better than reducing energy intensity. The technical breakthrough of unconventional natural gas is the key to guarantee long-term supply security of natural gas industry chain system. In conclusion, to improve the resilience of China's natural gas industry chain system, it is necessary to adopt a combined strategies of "stabilizing external supply, strengthening internal reserves, accelerating energy saving and consumption reduction, and taking non-fossil energy as a substitute".

05

中国天然气价格管理措施的认识与思考

Understanding and thinking of China's natural gas price management measures

【Abstract】China's natural gas price reform and management has achieved significant achievements after years of development, which has promoted the high-quality development of natural gas industry and driven the rapid growth of natural gas consumption in the country. As a consensus is gradually reached on the reform towards "liberalizing gas sources and sales prices, and realizing market-oriented pattern", the reform of the natural gas price mechanism is challenged by the selection of specific measures in the transition process. This paper systematically reviews China's natural gas price policies since 1961, summarizes the main practices, applicable conditions, implementation effects, advantages and disadvantages of natural gas price management measures, and then forecasts the future application paths of these measures. The following results are obtained. First, seven measures are mainly adopted in China's natural gas price management, including adjusted price level, consolidated price, comprehensive price, differential price, excess price, "benchmark + floating" price, and linked alternative energy price. Second, these management measures correspond to different main contradictions. The measures such as adjusted price level, consolidated price, and comprehensive price usually make gas prices stable, while differential price, excess price, "benchmark + floating" price, and linked alternative energy price lead to fluctuation of natural gas prices. In conclusion, the development of China's natural gas price control measures should be further promoted in the process of sales pricing of gas supply enterprises, gate station price reform, and formation of price indexes of key hubs in natural gas trading centers, so as to further enhance the reform of China's natural gas price mechanism.

06

中国天然气基准价格建立路径：欧美经验及启示

Establishing China's natural gas benchmark price system based on western experiences

【Abstract】The benchmark price of natural gas accurately reflects the supply and demand relationship of natural gas in the regional market within a certain period of time. It embodies the true use value of natural gas, and is a natural product of the market-oriented reform of natural gas. With the rapid development of China's natural gas industry, establishing a representative natural gas benchmark price that can timely and accurately reflect the supply and demand of the natural gas market has become crucial to the reform of the natural gas market. This paper thoroughly analyzes the market-oriented reform of natural gas in the west, particularly with respect to the establishment of benchmark hubs and prices in mature natural gas markets, and proposes recommendations on shaping China's natural gas benchmark price system depending on the market realities and challenges. The following results are obtained. First, establishing a free competition market with benchmark hubs and promoting the transformation of pricing mechanisms are important paths of European and American countries. Second, a solid foundation has been laid in China as the market-oriented reform of natural gas industry has been advancing in an orderly manner, and the number of trading hubs has gradually increased. Third, to establish the benchmark price system of natural gas in China, it is necessary to accelerate the construction of benchmark hubs, explore the cancellation of station price management, and promote the market-oriented reform of terminal sales prices. In conclusion, establishing a benchmark price system for natural gas will help enhance the stability of China's natural gas market, enable China to set the price of imported natural gas, improve the capacity of energy supply.

期刊推荐

《天然气工业》是由中国石油天然气集团有限公司主管，中国石油天然气股份有限公司西南油气田分公司主办的全面报道中国天然气工业的技术应用类科技月刊。杂志创刊于1981年，每月25日出版，国际标准连续出版物号：ISSN 1000-0976,中国标准连续出版物号：CN 51-1179/TE。

《天然气工业》杂志秉承“植根川渝、面向全国、走向世界”的理念，以“全面展示中国天然气工业的进步与发展，推动并服务于中国天然气产业的科技进步，促进相关科技成果转化为现实生产力”为已任，及时报道中国天然气工业上、中、下游的科技成果。杂志报道方向强调三贴近：“贴近大中气区、贴近生产科技一线、贴近前沿理论研究”，强化三突出：“突出天然气特色、突出领先报道领域、突出上中下游全覆盖优势”，并及时进行天然气政策解读，刊文注重12个新：新理论、新进展、新认识、新观点、新领域、新技术、新工艺、新产品、新工具、新建议、新评价、新方案，推行“一刊一网”的办刊模式，全力打造行业权威科技期刊。

《天然气工业》目前的主要栏目包括：本期视点、大气田巡礼、地质勘探、开发工程、钻井工程、集输与加工、安全环保、经济管理、新能源。

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