刘英：破解消费不足，要靠“投资于人”释放潜力

编者按：中国正日益重视对人力资本的投资。2月4日，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英接受《中国日报》专访，就为何投资人力资本对国家未来发展至关重要，以及政府和私营部门必须如何协同推进这一领域等问题进行解读。

▲英文原文发表于《中国日报》2026年2月4日第8版

“投资于人”旨在对全人群进行全生命周期的能力提升与潜力开发，从而激发经济的内生增长动力。

“投资于人”是指紧紧围绕人的需求而进行的投资，包括用于提升教育与技能、健康与医疗保障、育幼与养老支持、就业与收入分配、创新与科研人才培育等方面的资金。这些投资有助于释放消费潜力、推动创新驱动，为我国实现“人的全面发展”与“共同富裕”目标做出贡献。

随着我国进入高质量发展阶段，消费正在成为经济增长的主动力。2025年，我国社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿元，对GDP的贡献率达52%。与此同时，消费结构正从“商品主导向服务主导”升级。

但是，我国居民消费率长期偏低，不少人存在 “有钱不敢花”的倾向。有效需求不足成为制约高质量发展的瓶颈，亟须通过“投资于人”破解。

另一方面，随着人口老龄化加剧，我国劳动力供给趋紧。同时，新质生产力的发展对劳动者技能提出全新要求。面对这一事实，也需要加大“投资于人”的力度，将人口红利转化为“人才红利”。

“投资于人”不是短期刺激政策，而是中国发展的重要战略基石之一，因为我们努力工作的目标就是为了满足人民对美好生活的向往。“投资于人”不仅是福利性支出，而且是驱动消费、支撑产业升级、提升全要素生产率的战略性投资。

▲1992——2025年我国投资累计同比增长速度变化情况

“投资于人”需要多方面的主体共同参与，需要多措并举。其中，政府和社会（私人）资本都应当共同参与“投资于人”的项目。“投资于人”项目一般具有强正向溢出效应，项目的实施可惠及广大人群。但这类项目普遍具有长周期的特性，以及短期回报不显著的特点，仅靠财政资金难以全面覆盖。社会资本则具有运营效率高、创新性强等优势，可有效弥补公共投入的不足。

引导社会资本参与“投资于人”项目，需构建一套完善的政策引导、风险分担和收益分配体系，实现公共福利目标与商业运营可持续的有机统一。

首先，政府应发挥关键的引导和催化作用，通过优化制度、稳定政策预期来降低社会资本的投资风险。

其次，需要积极探索新的商业模式，让人力资本投资形成可持续的商业回报。

最后，营造重视人力资本投资的社会共识也至关重要。政府和企业应共同努力，弘扬“人才是第一资源”的理念。

需要注意的是，在当前强调“投资于人”的背景下，“投资于物”仍是我国经济增长的关键支撑，在当前经济转型中仍具有不可替代的重要性。“投资于物”，包括对传统基建、新型基建和制造业的投资，构成了我国经济运行的物质、技术支撑。

“投资于人”与“投资于物”并非相互替代的关系，而是相互促进、辩证统一、协同促进的关系。二者共同构成了新质生产力发展的驱动力。

目前，我国超大规模市场潜力尚未完全释放。因此，一方面，要通过紧紧围绕人，加大教育、医疗、托育、养老等“人”的投资，提升居民可支配收入和预期，降低预防性储蓄。另一方面，为满足人民对美好生活的向往，要强化交通、数字基础设施、城市更新、农村水利等“物”的投资，加快国内统一大市场建设，提升服务质量与可及性。

英文原文

Investment in human capital aims to enhance people's capabilities and develop their potential throughout their life, thereby stimulating endogenous economic growth. Such investments cover projects to enhance people's education, skills and health, support childcare and elderly care services, boost employment, optimize the income distribution system and cultivate innovative and research talent.

Such investment helps unleash the potential of consumption, allows innovation to play a bigger role in economic growth and contributes to the country's efforts to achieve the well-rounded personal development of its population and common prosperity for all.

As China's economy enters a stage of high-quality development, consumption has become a major driving force for its growth. Final consumption expenditure contributed 52 percent to the country's growth in 2025, with total retail sales of consumer goods exceeding 50 trillion yuan ($7.2 trillion). In addition, consumption of services is gaining momentum.

Still, household consumption accounts for a relatively small share of China's GDP. Many people are inclined to save instead of spending. Insufficient consumer demand is a bottleneck for high-quality development, a challenge that should be addressed through investment in human capital.

As China's population gets older, labor supply has tightened. Also, the development of new quality productive forces requires new skills. Given these challenges, investment in human capital needs to be increased to turn China's waning demographic dividend into a waxing "talent dividend".

Investment in human capital is not a short-term stimulus but a strategic cornerstone for China's continued development. It is not only welfare expenditure, but also a means to increase consumption, support industrial upgrading and enhance total factor productivity.

Both the government and the private sector should participate in human capital investment projects. These projects generally have strong positive spillover effects, and tend to benefit a broad segment of the population. However, they usually require long-term commitment and don't offer significant returns in the short term. The government alone cannot undertake all these projects.

The private sector, which is highly efficient and innovative, could play an effective and complementary role in such investments. Sound mechanisms of policy guidance, risk sharing and profit distribution are necessary to encourage the private sector to participate in these projects, and to promote both public interests and sustainable business operations. In this process, the government should play a crucial guiding role by improving regulations and stabilizing policy expectations.

Greater efforts are needed to explore new business models that enable human capital investment projects to generate sustainable returns. At the same time, it's also important to foster a broad social consensus that values such investment. The government and enterprises should work together to promote the idea that "talent is the primary resource".

While China is emphasizing investment in human capital, investment in physical assets should not be ignored. It remains vital for the country's economic growth and transition. Investment in physical assets, including traditional and new infrastructure and the manufacturing sector, provides the material and technological foundation for the country's economy.

It is worth noting that the two kinds of investment are not mutually exclusive. Rather, they reinforce each other. Together, they form the driving force for the development of new quality productive forces.

Both kinds of investment are necessary for fully unleashing the potential of China's superlarge market. Increased human capital investments in education, healthcare, childcare and elderly care would help enhance the disposable incomes of people and their expectations, thus reducing the need for precautionary savings. On the other hand, higher investments in transportation, digital infrastructure, urban renewal projects and rural water supply projects would improve the quality and accessibility of services and help develop a unified national market.