印度宣称GDP超越日本，跃居世界第四

据新华社，印度新闻信息局12月29日发布的年终经济评估报告显示，印度国内生产总值（GDP）当前已超过日本，成为世界第四大经济体，有望三年内赶超德国。

India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy with a size of $4.18 trillion, and is poised to overtake Germany to become the third-largest by 2030, the government has said.

图源：NDTV

这篇题为《2025年，印度经济增长的关键之年》的报告写道，印度是全球增长最快的主要经济体之一，并具备保持这一势头的良好条件。“印度GDP达4.18万亿美元，超过日本成为世界第四大经济体，且有望在今后两年半到三年内取代德国，跻身世界前三。到2030年，印度GDP预计将增至7.3万亿美元。”

"With GDP valued at $4.18 trillion, India has surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy, and is poised to displace Germany from the third rank in the next 2.5 to 3 years with a projected GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030," according to a government release providing a snapshot of reforms in 2025.

据印度时报，官方最终要以国际货币基金组织（IMF）2026年发布的年度GDP核算数据为准。

A final confirmation will depend on the data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the first half of 2026 when the final figures for 2025 will be released.

国际货币基金组织此前预测，到2026年，印度GDP将达4.51万亿美元，日本GDP同期预计为4.46万亿美元，届时印度将超过日本。

今年8月，美国因印度持续购买俄罗斯原油对其加征巨额关税，引发外界对印度经济担忧，但印度政府对本国经济前景仍保持乐观态度。报告说，印度经济的持续增长，体现了其“在全球贸易持续不确定性下的韧劲”。

New Delhi's upbeat assessment comes despite economic worries after Washington in August hit New Delhi with huge tariffs over its purchases of Russian oil.

India said continued growth reflects its "resilience amid persistent global trade uncertainties".

记者8月21日在印度首都新德里拍摄的街景 图源：新华社

不过，从其他一些衡量指标来看，印度经济前景可能“没那么乐观”。世界银行数据显示，2024年印度人均GDP仅为2694美元，为同期日本人均GDP（32487美元）的十二分之一，是德国人均GDP（56103美元）的二十分之一。

报告显示，印度14亿人口中，超过四分之一群体介于10岁至26岁。“作为世界上最年轻的国家之一，印度的经济增长前景取决于其能否创造高质量就业岗位，从而有效吸纳不断增长的劳动力，实现包容性和可持续性增长。”

Government figures show that more than a quarter of India's 1.4 billion people are aged between 10 and 26. Creating enough well-paid jobs for millions of young graduates is an upcoming hurdle, but the report offered a rosy outlook.

"As one of the world's youngest nations, India's growth story is being shaped by its ability to generate quality employment that productively absorbs its expanding workforce and delivers inclusive, sustainable growth," a note in the review said.

来源：新华社 印度时报 NDTV AFP

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