Tesla Shares Soar 15% as Elon Musk's Big Bet on Trump Pays off

TMTPOST -- Tesla Inc. shares fininshed around 14.8% higher to the highest close since September 2022 on Wednesday after Tesla CEO Elon Musk-backed former U.S. President Donald Trump made a historic comeback, which is deemed a positive for Musk’s businesses ranging from electric vehicle (EV) to space exploration.

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Trump claimed presidency for second time early Wednesday as multiple media outlets projected the Republican presidential candidate has won enough Electoral College votes. He became the first U.S. president to serve non-consecutive terms for more than a century. He is also one of the two presidents in U.S. history who won nonconsecutive terms, following the footsteps of Grover Cleveland, who was elected in 1884 and 1892.

The presidential election became one of the most costly campaigns in U.S. history. According to OpenSecrets, political spending across major-party campaigns, related political action committees (PACs), and other groups is projected to reach a record 15.9 billion U.S. dollars, with deep involvement of U.S. billionaires. Forbes had recorded 83 billionaires supporting Harris and 52 backing Trump by Octobter 30.

Musk, the richest man in the world, has committed more than $75 million to his American PAC last month to help Trump and other Republicans win in this month. His total known political spend this year is at over $132 million, Yahoo Finance reported more than a week ago. That’s one of the largest sums dedicated to a political candidate and a party. Musk also offered to give away $1 million a day to voters in swing states for signing his PAC’s petition backing the Constitution. The controversial giveaway has been sued by the Philadelphia district attorney last week.

In response, Trump has pledged Musk a position in his administration, stating in September Musk would lead a a government efficiency commission to audit the entire federal government. Musk said last month he could cut $2 trillion from the federal budget in that role.

Musk, the founder and CEO of SpaceX, proposed to Trump prior to the election that he hire SpaceX officials as high-ranking government employees, including at the Pentagon, The New York Times reported Wednesday. The report didn’t tell how Trump responded to the request.

In his victory speech Wednesday, Trump singled out Musk for praise, calling a new star is born. “[Musk is] a character, he’s a special guy, he’s a super genius. We have to protect our geniuses—we don’t have that many of them,” Trump said.

Trump’s victory suggests Musk’s big bet began to pay off. Investors speculate that Musk and his companies including Tesla will benefit from Trump’s return to the White House. While Trump is likely to reduce or eliminate subsidies for alternative energy and EVs, namely, EV purchase tax credits—a headwind for all EV makers, such move would do the most harm to smaller competitors. Moreover, Trump’s plans for hefty tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a research note Wednesday that a victory for Trump could harm the EV industry as a whole, but boost Tesla shares by $40 to $50. “Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Ives. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Baird analyst Ben Kallo expects in a note the same day that many Biden-era EV benefits to persist because both Red and Blue states stand to gain from them.